Modeling Of Demand Response Considering The Uncertainty And Its Applications In Power System Operation

With the increasing scale of new energy to the grid and construction of smart grid, the demand and the flexible scheduling conditions of demand side response are more and more urgent and mature. Demand response as demand side resources, which has the characteristics of economy and flexibility, is an important application of smart grid. At the same time, demand response, especially the interruptible load, is able to respond quickly to changes in wind power generation and reduce the cost of investment. In power system with high penetration of wind power and other new energy, demand response provide an ideal means of peak shaving reserve.Based on the previous research which have considered demand response as system reserve, this paper sort the way interruptible load participate in the reserve ancillary services market and, extension the demand response model considering its’ uncertainty aiming at the limitation of existing research. Fully considering the new features of uncertainty of interruptible load, an allocation model of reserve capacity is proposed. Considering the influence of the uncertainty of wind power, a reserve capacity coordination optimization method is put forward both considering interruptible load and generator power.First, we sort out that the demand response is feasible way to provide ancillary services. And we introduce the allocation principles, buying patterns and the relations with reliability when we need to clear the electric reserve market. Then through the introduction of the domestic and foreign experience, we describe the access conditions and specifications of interruptible load participating in reserve ancillary services market.Secondly, combined with the results of previous studies, this paper expands the uncertainty mechanism model of both price-based demand response and reliability-based demand response. First of all, the common modeling methods of demand response are introduced. Considering the uncertainty of demand response, the mechanism model of price-based demand response is introduced, and the model of interruptible load with uncertainty which is based on consumer psychology is put forward.Thirdly, we consider both the interruptible load and the reserve capacity of generation side serving as system reserve. The loss of load probability is used. We use Monte Carlo method to calculate the probability of loss of load and take the interruptible load as the node generating units. Fully considering the generator and transmission line fault and load fluctuation, we judge whether the interruptible load configuration and spinning reserve meet the reliability requirements through the power flow calculation, and use the particle swarm algorithm to calculate the optimal interruptible load compensation and rotating unit reserve capacity in a given period of time.Then, further considering wind power and the fluctuation of both load and wind power within 24 hours, we research on the method of determining reserve capacity. According to the prediction accuracy of wind power, distribution function of the error is discrete and wind power is modeled as a multi-state unit which has several outage rates. Than considering the uncertainty of wind power and other uncertain factors, we finally proposed the method of determining reserve capacity with interruptible load providing reserve capacity.Finally, we summarize the main research work of this paper, the research contents of this paper, the results obtained and its practical significance. Also, we note the research deficiencies that need to be further improved and make a prospect of further research in the field.