Reliability Analysis Method Of Distribution Network Considering The Impact Of Weather Conditions

The distribution network is an important link between the power system and users.The reliabilit y assessment of the distribution network has a positive effect on promoting the construction and transformation of the power network and improving social and economic benefits.The power components and communication components of the distribution network are exposed to the external environment for a long time,and their faults and maintenance are greatly affected by weather changes.Therefore,it is necessary to consider the important influence factor of weather in the reliability research of the distribution network.In order to more accurately characterize the weather conditions,the weather elements are further subdivided into sections.The weather conditio n model constructed in this way is both targeted and has a sufficient number of states,which can describe the differences in the impact of different weathers on the failure probability of different components in detail.According to the consequences of power component failures and maintena nce blackouts,the reliability of the distribution network is evaluated.Combining historical fault data,maintenance data and historical weather data of power components,a power component failure probability model and maintenance probability model with weather conditions as variables are constructed.Aiming at the consequences caused by the failure of communication components,the reliability of the cyber physical system of the distribution network can be improved more accurately.Based on the historical communication component failure data,a power component failure probability model and a communication element failure probability model with weather conditio ns as variables are constructed to obtain the failure probability model of the communication element.The main work of this article is as follows:First of al,the thesis introduces the research background,significance,development status and current situation of distribution network reliability research,and elaborates the basic theory of distribution network reliability.From the perspective of the physical side and the information side of the distribution network,the reliability evaluation indicators of the distribution network are introduced,and the common methods of distribution network reliability are listed,which lays a theoretical foundation for the calculation of the distribution network reliability below.For the reliability analysis of the distribution network,the factors affecting the reliability of the distribut io n network are analyzed,and the degree to which the weather affects the reliability of the distribut io n network is studied.In order to accurately capture the subtle effects of different weather conditions on the failure of different power and communication components,based on the P-value,important value,and correlation analysis methods,the main weather impact factors were screened and a targeted weather state model was established.Lay the foundation for the following distribution network evaluation model.Then,the reliability of the distribution network was evaluated based on the weather model.Based on the relationship between the historical fault data and historical weather data of the distribution network,and the relationship between the historical maintenance data and the historica l weather data,a power component failure probability model and a power component maintena nce probability model with weather conditions as variables were constructed respectively.Taking the distribution network sample data in a certain area as an example,the annual average power outage time,annual average power outage times,and availability indicators are analyzed.Based on the Monte Carlo method,the reliability of the distribution network is evaluated and compared with actual data to verify Assess the effectiveness of the model.Finally,the reliability of the distribution network was evaluated in consideration of the failure of communication components.Combining the relationship between historical power component and communication component failure data and historical weather data in the distribution network,a power component failure probability model and a communication component failure probabilit y model with weather conditions as variables are constructed.Aiming at the evaluation of the consequences caused by the failure of the communication components to make monitoring and control ineffective,a quantitative analysis method for the load loss of the distribution network is given.Considering the failures of power components and communication components comprehensively,a Monte Carlo method-based reliability assessment method for the cyber physical system of a distribution network is proposed.Simulation tests are performed on an improved IEEE 33-node test system,which verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.