Energy Demand Forecasting Model In Electricity Sector Of Ecuador Using Artificial Neural Network

Ecuador has had many sources of energy such as renewable energy and non-renewable energy,for this research approach on renewable energy resources and the production of energy through hydroelectric energy sources,the main objective of this research is the energy demand forecasting in the future,energy demand has many challenges in Ecuador,there are some sources of hydroelectric energy whose energy production is higher than others,sometimes the data are not recorded,taking into account the population growth and the economic development of the country,this research will use an Artificial Neural Network for an energy demand forecasting.the research used two models as Artificial Neural Network(ANN)and least square regression,due to the fact that a supervised method of ANN is used,which consists of having a desired value as a target value,therefore least squares regression is used to estimate the target values and be able to use ANN,the data was obtained from the Ministry of Electricity(SERCO)and the Statistics Institute.of Ecuador(INEC).The data are shown according to recent years,the variables used were GDP,population and energy demand.Finally,the results of the research were positive and determined the energy demand in the short term,according to this result,the government of Ecuador could implement new measures for the new energy shift project.