Research On Forecasting Methods Of Urban Water Demand And The Establishment Of Reasonable Water Price

Water demand forecasting and water price are two important parts of water resources management. In the first part of this paper, the status in quo of forecasting methods is analyzed, and the forecasting models for residential, industrial and agricultural water consumption are summarized. The advantages, disadvantages and applicability of normally used forecasting methods are also discussed. Considering the nonlinear characteristics of water demand series, a forecasting model based on artificial neural network is presented. The model reached the goal of high precision.The prices for water resources, water supply project and water environment establish a reasonable water price. In the second part of this paper, the principles and methods for water price establishment are discussed. Based on the factual situation of our country, computation formulae for the three parts are determined respectively. Particularly a dynamic computation method is presented to calculate the water price for water supply project. Yearly changes in water supply cost are considered, and time value for capital and economical market traits are included in this method.