Study On The Safety Evaluation Of Urban Conventional Public Transport Operation System

Conventional public transport is one of the important transportation modes chosen by urban residents for travel.It is also a complex transportation system.Its operation is not only affected by drivers,vehicles,roads and environmental factors,but also by the speed,passenger capacity,The impact of bus stop behavior and other aspects.Therefore,how to reduce and control the occurrence of public transportation safety accidents has important practical significance and application value for ensuring the safe operation of public transportation,ensuring the safety of life and property of urban residents,and promoting the development of the transportation industry.Under this background,this paper takes the various factors that affect the safety of the bus operation system as the basic indicators,respectively uses the accident tree analysis method and fuzzy theory to evaluate the safety of the bus operation system,and then integrates the relevant ideas of the fuzzy theory into the traditional accident tree analysis method,Establish a fuzzy accident tree model and use the model to conduct a safety evaluation of the bus operation system.Firstly,the bus operation system is comprehensively analyzed to fully understand the operation status of the bus system,and it also provides a certain reference for the selection of evaluation indicators;secondly,the safety evaluation of the bus operation system is carried out based on the accident tree analysis method and fuzzy theory.Through the accident tree analysis method,the minimum cut sets and structural importance that affect the safety of a bus operation system can be obtained.The results show that the minimum cut sets included are 15 traffic accidents,the minimum cut sets are 5 service accidents,and the minimum cut sets contain basic events.The number is at least 1 and the maximum is 3,which indicates that there are 20 possibilities of affecting the safety of a certain bus operation system,and the probability of danger is large;then the basic indicator weights are determined by the fuzzy theoretical analytic hierarchy process,which can realize the quantitative processing of basic indicators.A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of the safety of a certain bus operation system is carried out,and the danger level is determined to be more dangerous.Then,the fuzzy accident tree model is established by combining the accident tree analysis method and the relevant theory of fuzzy theory.Based on the analysis of the bus operation system using the accident tree,the model uses the fuzzy theoretical analytic hierarchy process to determine the basic index weights,which makes up for the lack of the accident tree analysis method to quantify the basic indicators.It is important to use the basic index weights to replace the accident tree structure.In order to more clearly analyze the impact of basic events on overhead events;finally select a city's conventional bus operation system as a research example,use the fuzzy accident tree model to analyze it,and the evaluation results are based on fuzzy The theoretical bus operation system safety results are not much different,verifying the rationality of the fuzzy accident tree model,and according to the cause of the accident and the magnitude of the impact on the overhead event,targeted prevention measures for bus operation accidents are proposed to improve bus operation safety.Provide important references.