Research On Integrated Forecast Method Of Short-term Wind Speed In Complex Terrain Based On WRF Model

As a clean and renewable energy source,wind energy can solve many energy and environmental problems brought about by the current social development process,and it has gradually received more and more attention.However,the wind energy has the characteristics of randomness and intermittence,and the incorporation into the power grid will cause adverse effects.Therefore,the wind power prediction system enhances the safety and stability of the system.For wind farms with complex terrain conditions,wind speed prediction has always been a difficult part of research,and is the basis of wind power prediction,which is of great significance.In this paper,an in-depth study on the short-term wind speed prediction method of a wind farm under complex terrain conditions is carried out.The main contents are as follows:Firstly,according to the observation data of meteorological elements such as wind speed and wind direction at the height of the wind tower of the wind farm,the stability and credibility of the meteorological elements are tested,and the annual variation of wind speed,daily variation,wind speed and wind power density,wind speed and wind direction frequency distribution are analyzed.Characteristics and changing laws.Through the analysis and processing of the observed data,the characteristics and variation of wind energy,wind speed and wind direction in the study area are obtained.Secondly,the terrain of the wind power station is more complicated,and the measuring points are greatly affected by the terrain.The SRTM3 DEM high-precision terrain data can be introduced to simulate the wind speed of the wind farm.The experimental results show that the SRTM3 DEM topographic data describes the terrain fluctuation characteristics of the wind farm simulation area more accurately and closer to the real terrain.For the research area where the terrain is complex and the wind speed is greatly affected by the surrounding terrain,the SRTM3 DEM terrain data is introduced,and the wind speed simulation effect is improved.For the research area with simple terrain and the wind speed is less affected by the surrounding terrain,The simulation effect of wind speed may only increase slightly,and even the analog error does not fall.Furthermore,based on the WRF model(The Weather Research and Forecasting Model,WRF Model),different boundary layer parameterization schemes are simulated for the wind farm research area,and the performance or effect of the different research schemes on the complex terrain wind speed simulation is verified.The WRF model is used to predict the wind speed and other meteorological data under complex terrain conditions.Feasibility.The experimental results show that by analyzing the wind speed simulation effects of different boundary layer parameterization schemes,a single optimal boundary layer parameterization simulation scheme can be obtained,thus predicting a more accurate wind speed.However,the wind speed data error predicted by the single boundary layer parameterization scheme is still large.In order to further improve the accuracy of the WRF model forecast wind speed,a variety of boundary layer parameterization schemes are used to integrate the forecast wind speed,and different integrated forecasting methods are applied to the wind speed.Simulated performance and effects.The experimental results show that when a variety of boundary layer parameterization schemes are used to integrate the forecast wind speed,the error indicators of the predicted wind speed are significantly reduced.When the integrated forecasting method is selected,some machine learning algorithms can be applied to establish an integrated forecasting model to predict the wind speed of the wind farm,so as to obtain a more accurate wind speed.Finally,the wind speed prediction algorithm is integrated into the algorithm processing layer module of the power prediction system and tested in the actual wind field operation.