Research On Demand Forecasting Model Of Faw Toyota Anqing 4S Store

With the rapid development of China's economy and the continuous improvement of people's living standards,private cars have gradually entered ordinary families.Looking back on the popularization process of family cars in recent decades,it is not difficult to find that 4S stores,as the terminal agency of family cars,still plays a very important role between the customer and the factory.The task of terminal customer sales and service is also to provide feedback for automobile manufacturers.At the same time,they are also responsible for various uncontrollable risks in regional markets.These risks include unpredictability from potential markets,threats from competitors,emergence of self-management problems and macro-economy.This has led to many uncertainties affecting the development of automobile 4S stores,especially in the complex market environment,4S stores are difficult to grasp the future sales demand and direction.Many 4S stores lack local market characteristics and in-depth understanding and communication with manufacturers,which limits their free development space.There are some deficiencies in macroeconomic thinking in a wider scope.There is a lack of access to information for the domestic automobile market as a whole.Therefore,the sales forecasting ability should be improved in some extend.Different environments lead to various problems in every 4S store.It is impossible to solve all problems which 4S store meets at one time.In the process of field investigation,the author often hears about the problems caused by unreasonable sales forecast and inventory management in some 4S stores,while 4S stores are tired of coping with some other problem such as under the pressure of survival,busy with the business itself,few 4S stores can calm down to analyze the real causes of the problems and seek solutions to them.Therefore,this paper chooses 4S stores for in-depth research on demand forecasting in the process of new car sales.Taking FAW Toyota Anqing 4S stores as an example,the demand forecasting data of Anqing 4S stores in 2018 and 2017 are imported into moving average forecasting method,simple exponential smoothing method,Holt forecasting model and Winter forecasting model,respectively.The model then compares the prediction error evaluation indicators of the four models,chooses a basic model which is more suitable for the 4S store demand forecast,and then investigates the subjective ratings of many sales influencing factors by senior practitioners in the industry through Delphi method,and ranks these factors,sets correction coefficients to the basement forecast demand.The basic model is modified to get the forecasting results of overlapping pre-prediction model.Finally,after comparing the forecasting results with the actual demand forecasting of Anqing 4S stores in 2019,it is found that overlapping pre-prediction model is more suitable for demand forecast of 4S stores.