The Research On The Bond Default Risk And Financial Early-warning Mechanism Under Implicit Guarantee

Most of the reasons for the debt defaults of Chinese enterprises,especially state-owned enterprises,have been due to the existence of implicit guarantees of“rigid redemption”.In 2012,although there were a series of risk events involving debt defaults,they were finally paid for by the banks and the government.The emergence of these events has increased the psychological expectations of investors for implicit guarantees,while ignoring the credit risks existing in the debt market,which is extremely unfavorable for the development of the debt market.In this paper,Tianwei group has repeatedly issued bond financing,but the final debt default bankruptcy restructuring case as an in-depth study.This paper mainly introduces the implicit guarantee--the internal mechanism of bond default,and introduces in detail how to produce the economic consequences of bond default and bring the risk of bond default from the perspective of implicit guarantee.Then,the introduction of early warning mechanism model,respectively from the qualitative analysis-"four-stage symptoms" analysis and quantitative analysis-linear function model analysis.Finally,the paper summarizes the default of Tianwei bonds,and the significance and prospect of the development of related industries and China's bond market.The research conclusion of this article is quite a few state-owned enterprises because of the existence of implicit guarantee,can more easily obtain financing,tend to ignore the enterprise the management decisions,and financial difficulties,eventually lead to default,therefore,enterprises should build the financial early warning mechanism,just some Z-score model does not apply to all enterprises,financial early warning mechanism,in building enterprise should be combined with the enterprise financial structure to adjust the model itself,to construct the enterprise financial early warning model.