Study On Cash Flow Risk Measurement Of Listed Companies In New Energy Industry Based On CFaR Model

The importance of cash flow to an enterprise is just like blood to the human body.In recent years,the focus of enterprise operation has gradually shifted from profit maximization to enterprise value maximization.However,today,with the increasing financial risks,cash flow is more important to the daily operation and sustainable and healthy development of an enterprise."Much starker choices-and graver consequences-in planning is pointed out that our country is in the critical period of energy transformation,has also introduced a lot of good policy in new energy,new energy industry is self-evident,the prospect of development of new energy industry as a strategic emerging industries,however,has high development costs,such as large capital demand characteristics,once a shortage of cash flow risk caused by cash flow,is bound to affect the industry's long-term development.Cash flow risk management is the core of financial management,so it is reasonable to focus on the cash flow of the industry to support the healthy development of the industry.This essay takes Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies in the new energy industry as the research object to measure and analyze the cash flow risk of the new energy industry.The paper is divided into five parts.The first part is the introduction,which summarizes the research background and significance of the paper,the literature review of relevant scholars,the research content and methods.The second part is a theoretical analysis,which defines the risk of cash flow and analyzes the causes of cash flow risk from two aspects of internal and external influencing factors,providing theoretical support for the empirical part.The third part analyzes the development status of the new energy industry,describes the development status of the whole new energy industry and sub-industries such as solar energy,wind energy,nuclear energy and biomass energy,and expounds the opportunities,challenges and risks in the development of the industry.The fourth part is the empirical analysis,the selection sample interval of 2009-2018 years of the new energy industry listed companies as the research object,the CFaR model based on panel data,the risk of cash flow between industry and industry,on the basis of construct the risk model of cash flow,combined with the actual distribution of the risk factors of cash flow characteristics,using the monte carlo simulation industry cash flow at risk value CFaR to gauge the size of the risk of cash flow;The fifth part is the suggestion of risk management and control.Based on the development status and the results of empirical analysis,the paper puts forward the management countermeasures of cash flow,such as expanding financing channels,strengthening research and development capability,rationally making project decisions,strengthening accounts receivable risk management and improving cash flow management and supervision mechanism.Papers,a study has found a new energy enterprises still face a certain degree of risk of cash flow,and risk differences between different sub industries,in the same industry average cash flow risk,solar and wind power enterprises have a higher risk of cash flow,especially solar energy enterprise,and nuclear power enterprise's cash flow risk level is lower than the average.In addition,the risk value of cash flow of different types of new energy enterprises is different,and the impact degree of cash flow of operating activities is also different.Therefore,the new energy industry should conduct targeted scientific management of cash flow according to its own types of enterprises.