Risk Assessment Of Forest Tenure Disputes Based On Fault Tree Analysis

The forest right dispute is one of the three major disputes in the rural areas of“land,water conservancy,and forests”,which is widespread and harmful.As the benchmark county in forestry development vitality and forestry reform,Longquan county is now suffered with frequent occurrence of forest right disputes in course of forestry modernization.So,the study on the forest right disputes managements in Longquan county has great guiding importance for both Zhejiang Province and the whole country.In this paper forest right disputes during the year from 1985 to 2016 are studied.Guiding by the social combustion theory,an cause events system consisting of 52 indexes is constructed,based on which a fault tree analysis on forest right dispute risk in Longquan county is carried out.Research indicates:(1)The forest right dispute is a type of high-risk dispute,FTA analysis come out with a large number of minimum cut sets,which are simple in structure and at the same time only 2 minimum path sets with complex composition are found.During the 32-year period,3197 forest right dispute cases were mediated and 97 cases are still leave un-settetled.The small-scale forest right disputes dominate the mediated cases.In most years,disputes no larger than 5 Mu the are main parts of disputes.The efficiency of settling forest right dispute in Longquan county is relatively high.More than half of the disputes are handled within 3 months and a large proportion of cases are settled in 1 month.(2)Obvious complexities and uncertainties are found in handling of forest right disputes.In the new century,forest right disputes in Longquan county have decreased as a whole compared with the previous century,but they have shown some fluctuations in 2006 and 2010.At the same time,it is worth noting that the forest right disputes with an area over 20 Mu or with a mediating time longer than 7 months still objectively existed.(3)Judging from the study results from survey data,such index as county forestry offices intervening,courts intervening,ownership related disputes,ecological forest related,between groups,and public institutions,between a group and household,and other indicators are the accumulating or revealing factors for forest dispute intensification.Whereas those factors as origin from same province,from the same group,and the same village,as well as the small-scale disputes among people and disputes about forest usage rights,are indicators likely to relief forestry disputes.(4)12 sensitive and important cause event items such as low recognition of landmarks,ability of one party to look for loopholes(contracts or policies),lack of attention to the maintenance of self-image,lack of administrative ability to administer according to law,lack of practical work experience,etc.are singled out as most economical aspects in managing forest right disputes priority sequences.With the economic and social development,6 factors that reflecting social fairness should gain great attention in forest right dispute management,as they are characterized by height concealment,occurrence and effects in development.These factors are transferable but not compensated eco-services,constrained resource management(either for tourism development or organic production)etc.The paper proposes that the risk management of forestry disputes should focus on reducing“burning substances”in forestry disputes such as blemish in ownership,improper measured interest,etc.;constructing a“coordinative work pattern”in forest right dispute mediation,improving the quality of the dispute mediation team in order to reduce negative effect from“combustion improver”as well as avoiding the impact of "ignition temperature".