Research On Influence Mechanism And Optimization Strategy Of Forest Ecosystem Service Value Based On System Dynamics

The value of ecological services played by forest ecosystems is the key to achieving the unity of environment and development,and plays an important role in improving and maintaining the health of the ecological environment.In order to improve the awareness of ecological protection for the whole people and to clarify the ecological main status of forest system and the direction of forest management,this study evaluates and predicts the value of forest ecosystem services in Liyang City to realize the sustainable development of forest ecosystem in Liyang City.Liyang City is an important treasure trove of forest resources in Jiangsu Province.The types of forests in the city are diverse,but with the construction of eco-cities,the value of forest ecosystem services in forest development has been affected.Therefore,this study takes the forests of Liyang City as the research object,and selects the four representative forest types of broad-leaved forest,coniferous forest,coniferous and broad-leaved mixed forest and bamboo forest,and selects the four remote sensing data of 1987,1997,2007 and2017.Image and processing analysis,analyze the dynamic changes of forest ecosystem service value in 30 years,and qualitatively and quantitatively analyze the influence mechanism of its change from the perspective of system dynamics,and construct a simulation model.On this basis,propose natural development.Three scenarios of forest protection and forest development,using system dynamics simulation method to simulate and predict the development trend of each scenario,the system dynamics simulation method is used to simulate and predict the development trend of forest ecosystem service value under various scenarios.The main conclusions of this study are as follows:(1)During the study period,the value of forest ecosystem services in Liyang City showed an increasing trend year by year.In 2017,it increased by 53.28% compared with1987.Bamboo forests have the largest area among forest types,and the forest ecosystem services generated by them have the greatest value;The development level of service and functional value has obvious differences,and the value of nutrient accumulation function develops fastest;the value per unit area decreases year by year,indicating that the irrational forest type structure hinders the coordinated development of forest ecosystem services.(2)This study analyzes and identifies 14 impact factors that affect the dynamic change of forest ecosystem service value from the social,economic and policy levels;the interaction factors have interactions,and the value of forest ecosystem services A certaindegree of influence;under the leading role of industrial economic development and policy planning,it affects the value of the service value of forest ecosystem in Liyang.(3)Combining forest protection requirements with urban development trends,using the system simulation method to set up three forest development scenarios: natural development scenarios,forest protection scenarios and forest development scenarios,and carry out simulation prediction of the value of forest ecosystem services in Liyang and find:to 2027 In the year,the total ecological value under the forest development scenario was the highest,at 54.869 billion yuan,an increase of 17.07% compared with 2017,which was higher than the natural development scenario of 6.15%.By 2037,the total value growth rate under the forest protection scenario was the largest.30.24%,the growth under the natural development scenario is the slowest,only 92.53% of the former.Finally,the following optimization strategies are proposed: promoting forestry structural adjustment and promoting healthy forest development from four aspects: strengthening ecological management,adopting forest protection as a long-term policy,adopting forest development as short-term measures and improving landscape quality,and providing forest ecosystem services to Liyang City.The value development model is optimized to provide theoretical guidance or reference for the protection and utilization of forest resources in China and the development of ecological cities.