Research And Application Of Forest Fire Risk Prediction Model

Forest fires are forest fire disasters that have lost human control and are free to spread and expand within forest land,causing certain damage and loss to forest resources,forest ecosystems and humans.Forest fires are global,sudden and destructive natural disasters.Once forest fires occur,it is difficult to control and fight forest fires.Therefore,it is necessary to predict and prevent forest fires in a timely and effective manner.Forest fire risk prediction and forecasting research can prevent forest fires in a timely and effective manner,effectively protect forest resources,and minimize the impact and consequences caused by forest fire disasters.It is an important part of current forest fire research.Combined with the existing forest fire risk weather level model,this paper firstly designs and processes the forest fire risk meteorological factors and vegetation factor data,and obtains the daily maximum temperature,daily minimum relative humidity,precipitation and maximum wind speed observed by ground meteorological stations.Time-based data,and satellite image vegetation coverage data,processing and calculation of two types of data,and fire risk classification verification for national fire cases,constructing forest fire risk prediction model,combining Matlab development language,developing forest fire risk prediction system,automatic Solving the distribution of forest fire risk grades and the distribution results of various impact factors in the study area laid the foundation for the application of forest fire risk prediction model.Based on the above contents,combined with the data collection and processing methods of the stations in the Daxinganling Research Area,four typical fire cases with large fire area between 2015 and 2018 were selected to analyze the fire state at the time of fire and the fire risk level space in the fire occurrence area.Application analysis of distribution and influence factors.Research indicates:(1)The fire case verification results show that among the 13 forest fire case data in the country.11 cases have fire hazard levels above 3.reaching moderate risk status,and the fire safety level verification result of actual fire cases is 85%.(2)The fire case verification results show that among the 13 forest fire case data in the country,11 cases have fire hazard levels above 3,reaching moderate risk status,and the fire safety level verification result of actual fire cases is 85%.(3)According to the distribution characteristics of the case meteorological data,several weather conditions affecting the occurrence of forest fire can be divided:?The weather is at a high temperature,and when the average value is above 25?,the combustibles themselves will be in a flammable state,while the relative humidity and precipitation When the average value is 18%and 6mm or less,the air is in a state of severe dryness,and the three together work to make the forest farm in a high temperature and dry environment.Once an ignition source is present,a fire will be induced.?The temperature of the forest farm,the relative humidity and the precipitation are all below the mean value.The air quality of the forest farm is in a state of steady and dry state,and the ignition source will also trigger the forest fire.?The temperature is too high,the humidity is low.although the precipitation occurs,it plays a role in suppressing the occurrence of forest fires,but because the temperature will change the flammability of the combustibles,the low humidity will make the air dry,when the high temperature and humidity are common.When the effect is higher than the inhibition of rainfall,it is still easy to induce forest fires.(4)The main cause of fire in Daxing'anling area is lightning fire.The seasons are all in summer,the temperature is high,the relative humidity and precipitation are small,resulting in dry climate,easy to reach the burning point of combustibles.The vegetation in summer forest area is flourishing,and the larch type vegetation is widely distributed.It is extremely easy to burn,and the wind speed is fast,which is easy to cause the fire to spread rapidly,and the influence factors jointly cause the fire to occur.In short,this paper uses the forest fire risk prediction system to automatically and quickly calculate,can predict the forest fire risk level in time,and is convenient for planning the route for the drone forest protection work,which is beneficial to the forest area protection personnel to observe the fire disaster in time,and effectively carry out the fire risk rating of the forest area.Regional monitoring plays an important role and significance for the protection of forest resources and ecosystems,as well as the scientific prevention of forest fires and the improvement of disaster prevention and control systems.