Research On The Occurrence Of Grassland Fire In Inner Mongolia Under Future Climate Scenarios

Grassland resources play an important role in the ecosystem,regulating the balance of ecosystems,maintaining biodiversity and providing a living environment for local herders to survive.China is one of the countries with abundant grassland resources.The maintenance and maintenance of grassland resources is of great significance to China.Grassland fire is one of the natural disasters that often occur on grasslands.However,the occurrence of fire will destroy the balance of grassland ecosystems and bring huge losses to local grassland resources,people's lives and economic assets.The occurrence of grassland fire is a very complicated process.The climate factor plays a leading role in the whole process.In recent years,with the global warming,the frequency of grassland fires has obviously increased.Therefore,simulating the relationship between climate and grassland fire,predicting the occurrence of grassland fire in future climate scenarios is of great significance to the management of grassland fires in relevant departments and the reduction of economic and ecological losses.This paper analyzes Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region as the study area.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)After extracting the MODIS fire anomaly data and obtaining the grassland fire point from 2000 to 2015,it is found that there are 13882 grassland fires in the study area in 16 years,including 2024 grassland fires in the humid area,in semi-humid There were 6438 grassland fires in the area,5146 grass fires in semi-arid areas,and 274 grass fires in dry areas.It is obvious in the analysis of the results that there are significant differences in grassland fires in different climate zones.In the northeast to the southwest,the occurrence of grassland fires is gradually decreasing.In humid areas,grassland fires are averaged 0.024 times per square kilometer,and semi-humid areas are squared.There are 0.033 times of grassland fires in rice,and 0.011 times of grassland fires per square kilometer in semi-arid areas.In arid areas,the average grassland fire per square kilometer occurs 0.00066 times.Because of the rare occurrence of grassland fires in arid areas,it is The semi-arid area is studied as a whole.(2)Based on the 16-year climate data from 2000-2015 and the grassland fire point data,the Logistic forward Wald regression model is used to establish a relationship model between climate and grassland fire in each climate zone,and screen out in each climate zone.Different climate impact factors show that the main climatic factors affecting grassland fire in humid areas are temperature,precipitation,relative humidity and DM dryness(De Martonne dryness).The accuracy of the model is 0.933;the main climate affecting grassland fire in semi-humid areas The factors include wind speed,precipitation,relative humidity and Ivanov wetness.The accuracy of the model is 0.661.The climatic factors affecting grassland fire in semi-arid and arid regions are wind speed,precipitation,relative humidity,DM dryness and Iraq.Wannoff wetness,the accuracy of the model is 0.824.(3)Comparing and analyzing the probability models of climate and grassland fires in different climatic zones,we can find that the climatic factors affecting grassland fires in different climatic zones are different,and the influence of the same climatic factors on grassland fires in different climatic zones There are also significant differences.Temperatures in relatively cold and humid areas are the main constraints of grassland fires,and play a positive role in the occurrence of grassland fires,while the effects of grassland fires in semi-humid and semi-arid and arid regions are not so significant;Precipitation plays a negative correlation with the occurrence of grassland fire in humid and humid regions,and in semi-arid and arid regions,it plays a positive role in the occurrence of grassland fires,with more precipitation and is also beneficial to vegetation.In the semi-arid and arid regions where the arid vegetation coverage is not high,precipitation and vegetation are the main constraints of grassland fire;relative humidity plays a negative role in the occurrence of grassland fire in humid areas.Semihumid areas and semi-arid and arid areas play a positive role in the occurrence of grassland fires.The results of these experiments show that even under the same climatic factors,the role played by grassland fires in different climatic conditions is different.In different climatic regions,the restrictive climatic factors are different.(4)Based on the probability model of climate and grassland fire occurrence in different climate zones,and the future climate data obtained after treatment,predict the probability of grassland fire in future climate scenarios.The results show that in 2050,the humid regions of Inner Mongolia,semi-humid In the regional and semi-arid and arid regions,under the three climate emission scenarios of RCP2.6,RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 with increasing temperature and increasing precipitation,the probability of grassland fires increased significantly,in the western part of the humid region.Where the probability of grassland fire is high;the probability distribution pattern of grassland fire in semi-humid areas gradually decreases from north to south;in the semi-arid and arid regions,the probability distribution pattern of grassland fire gradually decreases from northeast to southwest.In the future climate scenarios,the probability of grassland fires in different climate regions has increased significantly,but the distribution patterns of grassland fires in different climate regions are different.