Prediction Of The Potential Suitable Growth Areas Of Drosophila Suzukii(Matsumura) And Assessment Of Economic Losses In China

Drosophila suzukii(Matsumura,1931)is an important fruit pest.The host plant of this insect is extensive,involve 18 families more than 60 kinds of fruit.In order to timely prevent and control the Drosophila suzukii,prevent or slow down its further spread,protect the production safety of related fruits in various countries,and promote the export trade of related fruits in various countries,it is urgent to further study and clarify the fitness of Drosophila suzukii in the world.Therefore,this study based on Drosophila suzukii in the geographical distribution data and biological characteristics,in combination with CLIMEX 2.0 and ArcGIS10.1,this study was designed to predict the potential distribution areas and levels of Drosophila suzukii in the World,and in the future greenhouse gas A1 B and A2 emission scenarios for further prediction and analysis of the pest.This study used 2016 as the base year,based Evaluation Index system of economic losses caused by Drosophila suzukii.This study choose cherries in China and 7 host fruits affected by Drosophila suzukii planted in Fujian Province.Through the case study of economic loss of Drosophila suzukii,the importance of economic impact of Drosophila suzukii was revealed.The main research results are as follows:1.In the current climate condition,the high-fitness area of Drosophila suzukii mainly concentrated in Pennsylvania,Ohio,West Virginia,Virginia,north Carolina,Kentucky,Tennessee,Missouri,Arkansas,western Denmark,Germany,the Netherlands,Belgium,Italy,Slovenia,and Croatia,in southern Sweden,Romania,south and west,scattered region in northern Spain.Pakistan north,India,Nepal,Bhutan,myanmar sporadic distribution,southeast China,South Korea,most of Japan.By using ArcGIS processing and analyzing the area of each fitness grade distribution area of Drosophila suzukii,the results showed that the proportion of high-fitness area of Drosophila suzukii in the world was as high as 52.03%,and the proportion of unfitness area of Drosophila suzukiir in the world was only 7.69%.2.Under A1 B and A2 emission scenarios,with the increase of time,Drosophila suzukii tended to move northward in the global fitness distribution area.The suitable areas at different risk levels of Drosophila suzukii in 2030,2050 and 2070 was calculated and analyzed by ArcGIS model.The result is that,in the A1 B and A2 emission scenarios,with the increase of years,the area of high-fitness distribution area of the Drosophila suzukii decreased gradually with the increase of predicted years.The proportion of the unfitness area increased from 7.69% to28.01%,and the proportion of the high-fitness area decreased from52.03% to 35.80%.3.By establishing the evaluation index system of economic loss of Drosophila suzukii,it was calculated that the direct economic loss of Drosophila suzukii to cherries in 2016 could be as high as 1 billion yuan,the total potential economic loss to China's cherries was about 8.9 billion yuan.In addition,seven fruits in fujian province were selected in this study to evaluate the potential total economic losses caused by Drosophila suzukii.Direct economic losses accounted for a large proportion of the total economic losses.Based on the economic loss assessment model established,the potential total economic value of Drosophila suzukii to Fujian Province in 2016 is up to 3.5 billion yuan,which is 0.062% of the total output of Fujian Province,0.12% of the total output of Fujian Province.