Integrated Surveillance And Early Warning Of Foot-and-mouth Disease In Russia And China

Foot-and-mouth disease（FMD）is a highly contagious disease of livestock with high morbidity and mortality.FMD is prevalent throughout the world and severely endangering the health of animal as well as agricultural and pastoral production.Many FMD reports focus on the structure and detection methods of foot-and-mouth disease virus（FMDV）,while the prediction and risk assessment of FMD epidemic trend are easy to be ignored.In view of this,the risk warning models of FMD in Russia constructed by machine learning and risk assessment was to predict and quantify the FMD outbreaks in Russia.In order to study the interaction of FMD outbreaks between Russia and other livestock trading countries,the spatial autocorrelation and standard deviation ellipse were used to analyze the cluster and transmission of FMD outbreaks in Russia,Mongolia and China.The characteristics of the outbreak and distribution of FMD in China was used to further study the impact on China FMD from FMD outbreaks of Russia.In addition,Fluorescent Probe-GO was constructed based on conservative region sequence of FMDV VP1 to enhance the early detection of FMD at customs ports.1 Outbreak Prediction and Risk Assessment of FMD in RussiaBased on FMD outbreaks data in Russia from 2005 to 2014 and the Google trend data of FMD keywords,the correlation coefficients of Pearson and Sperman of the two sets of data were calculated.And the qualitative prediction model was constructed by Ranker as parameter screening method combined with 62 classifiers.The results showed that the sensitivity（SN）,specificity（SP）and accuracy（ACC）of the classification model with 8 and 15 variables reached 60%.The model constructed by ComplementNaiveBayes is better than other classifiers in sensitivity,specificity and accuracy,which reached 60.00%,72.00%and 70.00%respectively.It shows that the qualitative prediction model has good predictive ability and can be used to monitor the outbreak of FMD.After establishing the qualitative prediction model of FMD in Russia,the quantitative risk assessment model of FMD was built through five-tier risk path（scenario tree）,and the semi-quantitative risk assessment model of FMD prevention and control measures in Russian surveillance zone was constructed by scoring table.After 10,000 samplings of Monte Carlo simulation,the results showed that the probability of cattle infected with FMD in the surveillance zone of Russia was 7.22×10^-7（p）.The probability that at least one FMD infection case was exported from Russia due to FMD outbreaks in surveillance zone was 0.0316（q）.The predicted number of infected cattle of the 39,530⁵0,576 exported cattle in Russia per year was 0.0325（e）.And the calculation from the quantitative model indicated that the risk probability of the flaws in the FMD defence system was 1.84×10^-5.Based on FMD outbreaks in China,Mongolia and Russia from 2010 to 2018provided by the official website of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations,the prevalence analysis,spatial autocorrelation,hotspots analysis and standard deviation ellipse were used to explore the temporal and spatial clustering and transmission characteristics of FMD outbreaks in China,Mongolia and Russia.The results showed September was the common peak period of FMD outbreaks in the three countries.Although the outbreak of FMD in three countries had spatial cluster pattern,the cluster years were inconsistent and the hotspots were dispersed,and there was no significant hotspots along the border of the three countries.The directional trend analysis indicated that the FMD transmission was oriented toward northwest-southeast,and most of mean center of FMD are located in China.The results indicated that there is no significant correlation of FMD cluster pattern in the three countries and China is a serious affected area of FMD.2 Spatio-temporal Cluster Analysis of FMD in China and Early Detection of FMDV.Based on the integrated surveillance of foot-and-mouth disease in Russia,seasonal epidemiological analysis and spatial autocorrelation were used to analyze FMD cluster pattern in time and space.Standard deviation ellipse and mean center movement of FMD outbreak were used to calculate the transmission trend of FMD.The results indicated that the FMD outbreaks were concentrated in the first half of each year,March and May are the high-frequency outbreaks months;the distribution of FMD outbreaks in China exhibited a clustered pattern and Tibet,Ningxia,which are the FMD hotspots.In addition,the directional trend analysis indicated that the FMD transmission was oriented toward northwest-southeast.The results showed that the FMD outbreak in China was more affected by internal factors,and less affected by external factors.In addition,a Fluorescent Probe-GO was established based on the conservative region sequence of VP1 gene of FMDV.Target DNA was modified with fluorescent group as energy donor and graphene oxide as energy receptor.After comparing with the traditional SYBR Green Real-time PCR,it can be found that Fluorescent Probe-GO detection has better specificity and higher sensitivity（50 nM）,and with no false positive,which is more suitable for rapid detection of FMDV at ports.