Multi-risk Assessment And Management Of Agro-meteorological Disasters

In recent years,with intricacies of global climate change,the world is experiencing high temperatures,heat waves,droughts,floods,and increasingly severe and frequent extreme weather and climate events that severely affect all aspects of human society.Shaanxi Province is China's main food production base.With global warming,droughts,flood,hail,freezing and other agro-meteorological disasters frequently occur,food production is increasingly reduced.The scale,frequency,multiple risks of different spatial distributions of disaster events may increase with climate change,bring serious impact and uncertainty to human life and property,and economic development.Therefore,this study will build a three-level hierarchical framework for multi-risk assessment of agro-meteorological disasters based on the type of inter-disaster relationships,the concept of multiple disasters and multiple vulnerabilities,and based on the framework of sustainable livelihoods,multiple risk assessment theory and risk management theory.Based on the three-level hierarchical framework,comprehensive assessment of agricultural meteorological disasters and adaptive management will help to formulate preventive measures for related disasters and promote sustainable development of society.Based on the annual statistical data of agro-meteorological disasters in Shaanxi Province from 1980 to 2015 and field survey data of 619 farmers in Shaanxi Province from 2015 to 2018,this study uses the five-point-three smoothing method,BG segmentation algorithm,and wavelet analysis to analyze changes in trends,mutation points and periodicity to complete the risk assessment of a single disaster;and uses the causality matrix,Bayesian network and Bayesian hierarchical model to analyze the interaction between multiple disasters,and proposes countermeasures for adaptive management based on the relationship between multiple vulnerabilities and related livelihood capital indicators.The results show that:(1)From 1980 to 2015 in Shaanxi Province,the disaster rate and intensity of floods showed a significant downward trend,the disaster rate of freezing showed a significant upward trend,the disaster intensity of freezing increased,and the disaster rate and intensity of drought and hail did not change significantly.(2)Flood disasters have the most abrupt changes,and the change trend is the most obvious;drought,hail,and freezing disasters have a more moderate change trend,with only one change point.(3)The severe impact period of flood disaster is 3-10 years;drought disaster rate is within the range of 3-8 years,there are more oscillations;hail disasters exist multi-scale change of 0-10,11-20,and 21-32;freezing disaster rate fluctuates on the time scale of 0-17 years.(4)Drought disasters have the greatest impact on other disasters,followed by floods.Hail and freezing disasters have less impact.(5)Analysis of data from field investigations shows that the importance of various disasters on agricultural production is: frost,drought,continuous rain,wind disaster,flood and hail.(6)From the perspective of floods and droughts,the vulnerability of grain,wheat,and millet is less affected by livelihood capital indicators,and the vulnerability of soybeans is affected by rural electricity consumption,effective irrigation area ratio,crop planting area,per capita net income of rural households and agricultural phosphate fertilizer application;for hail disasters,the vulnerability of crops is positively affected by per capita net income of rural households,and total power of agricultural machinery has positive and negative effects on vulnerability;for freezing disasters,total power of agricultural machinery,rural electricity consumption,agricultural nitrogen fertilizer and phosphate fertilizer application have a significant negative impact on the vulnerability of crops.Agricultural potassium fertilizer and compound fertilizer application have a significant positive impact,effective irrigation area rate and crop planting area have positive and negative effects on vulnerability.Based on the above conclusions,this study puts forward the following policy recommendations:(1)Popularize the knowledge of agro-meteorological disasters to farmers,make them aware of the characteristics and changes of disasters and the interaction between disasters.(2)The government and relevant departments should consider increasing the corresponding livelihood capital according to the characteristics of different regions and formulate adaptive management measures.(3)Increase investment in rural infrastructure construction,increase the physical capital of farmers,and broaden channels for farmers to obtain disaster information.(4)Encourage researchers to develop disaster prevention and governance technologies suitable for multi-hazard concurrent environments.