Comprehensive Analysis And Integrated Assesment Of Agro-meteorological Disaster In Fujian Province

Based on the statistical data of disaster-affected area from 1985 to 2004 in Fujian Province, this paper analyzed the affecting mechanism of meteorological disasters on grain crops and the the developing trend. with the help of the theory and method of grey system, the main disasters which influenced grain production in Fujian including dry,flood,typhoon and hailstones,low temperature were analyzed and the correlative degree between the disasters and agriculture were quantitatively measured (the hazard theory), analyzed the sensitivity of grain yields to meteorological disasters, comparing Grain products change which has been get rid of the proportion caused by the grain sown area' fluctuation to the variation of disaster area (the hazard-for-mative environment theory). Using grey correlation method to work out the correlation degree between the sum disasters and each of the main disasters, the weight of influencing factors was got. So the comprehensive assessment model was built to estimate the degree of disasters damaged to the agricultural pursuits in the last 25 years(the district disaster system theory). The results indicated:1) The meteorological disaster deeply affected the crop's production, both range and degree of the damages is to enhance in next years.afflicted area and Disaster-affected area both are the most in 1990', the least in 1980';at the first years in 21 century, the ratio of Disaster- suffered up to 43.5% and the ratio of Disaster-affected is 20.86%,both of them still go up in the time,the rising range is fabulosity.2) The main meteorological disaster affecting the yield of early rice were typhoon and hailstones, dry was the first disaster which had caused the reduction of productions of the other crops. So far as agriculture in Fujian Province, the degree of dry and low temperature impacting yield is the most serious, the infiuent of flood and dry had been rising after 1995.3) The sensitivity of grain yields to meteorological disasters showed decline from 1980' to 1990',the value is the highest at the first years in 21 century.4) The condition of disasters under middle degree and less is percent 88 in the past 25 years, the most serious happened in 1999, the most trivial in 1984. and the harmfulness tended to increase and the fluctuation was trend to intensify in next years.The results provided verification for farther study on the affection of agro-meteorological disaster to crop production and the assessment to disaster in Fujian province.