Value Of Neutrophil-lymphocyte Ratio And Hematocrit To Predict Persistent Organ Failure In Acute Pancreatitis

Objective:1.To explore the correlation between Neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio(NLR),Hematocrit(HCT)and occurrence of persistent organ failure(POF)in acute pancreatitis(AP);2.To explore the early predictive value of POF for AP when NLR and HCT are singly or combined,and the predictive value when combined with other indicators.Methods:Retrospectively collected during visits from October 2016 to October 2019 in the People's Hospital of Shanxi Province patient diagnosed with AP and meet the entry criteria of a total of 128 cases,according to whether the occurrence of persistent organ failure were divided into two groups: non-POF group(80 cases)and POF group(48cases).Among them,33 had single organ failure and 15 had multiple organ failure.Collect the clinical data and serological indicators of patients after admission,such as NLR,HCT,and calcium.The correlation between NLR,HCT and AP occurrence of POF was analyzed,and the receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC curve)was used to evaluate the early predictive value of NLR,HCT and the combination of POF for AP patients.Results:There were significant difference in NLR and HCT in patients between POF group and non-POF group,while the difference between NLR and HCT in single organ failuregroup and multiple organ failure group was not statistically significant.When plotting the ROC curve of NLR and HCT for predicting AP associated with POF,the area under the ROC curve of NLR is 0.793 and the threshold value is 9.07;the area under the ROC curve of HCT is 0.705 and the threshold value is 0.487;the area under the curve when both jiont is 0.837.According to the results of binary logistic regression analysis,NLR and HCT are independent factors that predict the occurrence of POF in AP,and are related to the occurrence of POF in AP.When NLR and HCT are used for prediction in series,the specificity at this time is the highest,which is 95.0%,and when prediction is performed in parallel,the sensitivity When NLR,HCT and calcium were combined for prediction,the area under the ROC curve was 0.920,which was the highest.Conclusion:NLR and HCT are related to the occurrence of POF in AP,and can be used as early predictors of POF in AP.When the two are combined,the sensitivity and specificity of prediction can be improved.When combined HCT NLR and calcium can be further improved predictive power of the POF of AP.