Time Series Analysis And Spatial Analysis Of Hepatitis B In Jilin Province From 2004 To 2018

Objective:This study describes the epidemiological characteristics of the incidence of hepatitis B in Jilin Province from 2004 to 2018 at different times,regions,and populations;constructs a time series prediction model and predicts the incidence trend of Jilin Province in the next two years;The analysis method of global spatial autocorrelation and local spatial autocorrelation explores whether there is spatial aggregation in hepatitis B,and finds hot spots and abnormal areas of hepatitis B.Reveals the temporal and spatial characteristics of the hepatitis B epidemic in Jilin Province,providing a basis for the health department of Jilin Province to formulate corresponding public health policies and optimize the allocation of public health resources.Methods:From 2004 to 2018,Jilin Province’s hepatitis B incidence data came from an infectious disease report information management system,and Jilin Province’s population data was derived from the Jilin Province Statistical Yearbook.EXCEL 2016was used to collate the incidence data of HBV in Jilin Province from 2004 to 2018.The incidence,number of cases and composition ratio were used to describe the epidemiological characteristics of HBV incidence in Jilin Province at different times,regions and populations.The R3.4.3 software was used to construct an ARIMA time series prediction model for the monthly incidence of hepatitis B in Jilin Province,and to predict the incidence of hepatitis B in 2019 and 2020.The ArcGIS 10.4.1 software was used to draw a map of the incidence of hepatitis B,and global spatial autocorrelation analysis and local spatial autocorrelation analysis were performed to explore the spatial prevalence and aggregation of hepatitis B.Results:1.From 2004 to 2018,205,960 cases of hepatitis B were reported in Jilin Province,with an average annual incidence of 50.27/100,000.After 2011,the incidence level has been decreasing year by year.2.The peak incidence of hepatitis B in Jilin Province occurs in March each year;the three regions with the highest incidence are Baishan City,Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture,and Baicheng City,and the lowest region is Jilin City;the highest incidence rate is in the 30-40 age group;There are more males than females in hepatitis B cases,with a male-to-female ratio of 1.97:1;the three occupations with the highest incidence are farmers,household chores and workers and workers.3.Using the data on the number of patients with hepatitis B in Jilin Province from2004 to 2018,an ARIMA product seasonal model was successfully established.The final model is ARIMA（2,1,1）（2,1,2）₁₂,and the root mean square error is 110.28.The average percentage error is 7.11,the model fits well and the prediction accuracy is high.The forecast results show that the number of hepatitis B cases in Jilin Province will decline in the next two years.4.The map of the incidence of hepatitis B in Jilin Province shows that the area with high incidence of hepatitis B has been decreasing year by year since 2011,and the incidence in all counties and cities in the province will be controlled within 50/100,000in 2018.5.Through global spatial autocorrelation analysis,the results show that there was a global spatial autocorrelation relationship in the incidence of hepatitis B in Jilin Province from 2013 to 2018,and the spatial relationship was positive correlation,that is,there was an aggregation trend.6.Through Getis-Ord Gi*analysis,the results show that the main hotspots for hepatitis B in the 15 years from 2004 to 2018 are Taonan City,Taobei District,Zhenlai County,Yitong Manchu Autonomous County,Helong City,Tiedong District,and Tiexi District.The cold spots are Qianguo County,Ningjiang District,Yongji County,Qian’an County,and Fuyu County.7.Through Anselin Local Moran’s I analysis,it is found that the high-high（HH）clustered areas are Qianguo County,Ningjiang District,Yongji County,Qian’an County,and Fuyu County;the low-low（LL）clustered areas are Longjing City and Yanji.City,Hunjiang District,Changbai Korean Autonomous Region,Tongyu County,Tumen City,Huinan County;high-low（HL）cluster areas include Longjing City,Yanji City,Hunjiang District,Changbai Korean Autonomous Region,Tongyu County,Tumen City,Huinan County;low-high（LH）clusters include Ji’an City,Ningjiang District,Fusong County,Linjiang City,Dunhua City,Da’an City,Qianguo County,and Fuyu County.Conclusion:1.After the prevention and control of hepatitis B,the incidence of hepatitis B in Jilin Province has decreased year by year in recent years,and is currently at the lowest level in years.2.The high incidence of hepatitis B in Jilin Province is March.Males,aged between 30-40 years old,and farmers with occupations as farmers should be the key targets for prevention and control.3.Using the ARIMA（2,1,1）（2,1,2）₁₂ model for prediction,the results show that the incidence of hepatitis B in Jilin Province in 2019 and 2020 is declining.4.From 2013to 2018,there was a global spatially aggregated autocorrelation in the incidence of hepatitis B in Jilin Province.5.Hot areas such as Taonan City,Taobei District,Zhenlai County,Yitong Manchu Autonomous County,Helong City,Tiedong District,and Tiexi District are the key areas for the prevention and control of hepatitis B in the province,and the management of hepatitis B prevention and control in this area should be strengthened.Longjing City,Yanji City,Hunjiang District,Changbai Korean Autonomous Region,Tongyu County,Tumen City,and Huinan County are high-low（HL）gathering areas,and the high incidence of hepatitis B is easy to be ignored.Concern about the morbidity.