Research On The Establishment Of The Box Office Prediction Model Of Batch Film Investment

Imported Copyright Buy-Out Films,commonly known as "batch films",is a special kind of imported films.At present,there is no model research on batch films'box office prediction and evaluation in foreign countries.Domestic research focuses more on the cross-cultural communication represented by the US box office splits and the prediction of domestic box office.lWhen purchasing batches'copyright,Chinese copyright purchasers often rely on experience to judge.Often,due to the lack of sufficient understanding of the market and effective evaluation means,the investment risk is too high and the loss is very easy to occur.According to the current research foundation and situation,the main purpose of this paper is to further enrich the theory of box office prediction model,optimize the means of box office and production risk assessment in China,especially to explore the mode of using mature model tools for evaluation.In reality,we should provide appropriate investment evaluation tools to batch film purchasers to assist them in purchasing decisions,effectively assess the box office potential and purchasing risk of batch films,reduce potential investment losses and resource waste,and hope to promote the healthy and steady development of domestic film market and related industries upstream and downstream.This paper mainly studies the methods of literature research,case analysis and experience summary.Firstly,we collect and sort out the box office samples of the past years.Secondly,using SPSS software,we construct the prediction model of the batch investment box office.Then,the prediction model is tested with the data,and the box office of the batches in or to be shown is forecasted,in order to confirm the key factors affecting the box office of the batches and to test the forecasting effectiveness of the model.From the forecasting model,the number of days released,the number of days lagged and the media score are the key factors affecting the box office performance.The box office prediction model obtained in this study has a good prediction result for the box office range of 100 million to 500 million.