Cultural Film And Television Asset Securitization Pricing

With the raising prosperity of China's cultural film and television industry,the financing needs of the cultural film and television industry continue to increase.In the market environment where the securities market keep flourishing and investment transactions are active,asset securitization has become a high-quality option for financing of cultural film industry.This paper takes cultural film and television assets as the research object,discussing the structural design,the valuation of basic assets and the pricing of securitized products involved in the process of asset securities,and studies the relevant content of asset securitization based on the income of the cinema.First of all,this paper gives the definition of cultural film and television assets,and analyzes the development status and prospects of China's cultural film and television industry.In addition,we introduce the transaction structure and links of asset securitization,which provides a practical and theoretical basis for the pricing research of cultural film and television asset securitization.This paper mainly analyzes the “Jiantou-Huayi Brothers Cinema Trust Revenue Asset Support Special Plan”.By studying its advantages,it analyzes the advantages and feasibility of cultural film and television asset securitization.In the study,it was found that there was a problem that the underlying assets were not published in the domestic four-house ABS,which made the risk linkage between the underlying assets and the original asset holders not yet cut off.However,it has also made special arrangements in the choice of structural design and credit enhancement methods to effectively guarantee the risk repayment of its securitized products.From the perspective of the form of asset securitization products,cultural film and television asset securitization products are not much different from other asset securitization products.They are financial products that can bring certain benefits to investors.The main difference between cultural film and television asset securitization and other asset securitization products lies in the characteristics of the basic assets in the asset pool,including the stability of the future cash flow of the underlying assets,the size and controllability of the risks faced by the underlying assets.However,the particularity of cultural film and television assets as the underlying assets directly determines that cultural film and television assets securitization products are very different in structural design and product pricing.The first thing to solve in the study of the pricing of cultural film and television assets is the valuation of the underlying assets.The forecast and valuation of cash flow provides a basis for the issuance of securitized products.However,the cash flow of cultural film and television assets is difficult to predict due to the uncertainty of their future returns,which makes it difficult to estimate the underlying assets.In terms of basic asset valuation research,this paper uses the Bass model to predict the cash flow of cultural film and television assets.This paper selects the historical data of box office in mainland China in the past nine years as a research sample,and obtains six kinds of characteristic information such as director,actor,film type,release time,country of production and movie production budget corresponding to the film.Quantify and establish the relationship between the parameters and the parameters of the Bass model,so as to predict the release period and the consumption of the people after the film is released,and then predict the future income of the film,and finally realize the valuation of the underlying assets.In addition,when constructing the relationship between parameter estimation value and movie feature information,this paper uses machine learning algorithm to analyze which improve the prediction effect.In the process of researching the valuation of cultural film and television assets,it is found that movie consumers are more likely to be influenced by others.This proves the effectiveness of the word-of-mouth strategy in China's film market.In addition,it has also been found that directors,actors and other factors have a significant impact on the box office of the movie.In terms of pricing analysis of asset securitization products,this paper selects shibor as the base interest rate,and analyzes the historical data from 2010 to 2018,and obtains the parameter information such as the volatility and mean process of its historical interval.Based on the calculation of parameters,a Monte Carlo simulation method based on CIR interest rate model is adopted to predict the future interest rate change path.This paper studies the 477 types of asset securitization products that have been issued,and uses the option adjustment spread model to calculate its risk compensation value,and classifies it according to the securities rating,as a pricing reference for issuing new asset securitization products.Based on this logic,this paper analyzes the pricing of “16 Huayi A3”,compares and discusses the pricing results with the market price,analyzes the reasons for the possibility of the difference,and explains some shortcomings in the empirical process.This paper fully considers the asset characteristics of cultural film and television assets,and uses the cinema line in mainland China as an empirical research object to study the model and pricing of securitized products.The results show that the method selected in this paper has certain feasibility and applicability.In addition,the research in this paper also provides some ideas and references for the securitization of cultural film and television assets,which has certain guiding significance.