A Validated Prediction Model For Information Trauma

Military information support operations and cognitive domain operations are important forms of future wars.By injuring information,information weapons directly attack the enemy's cognition system,change or distort the attitude system and operational will,influence or disturb the command and decision-making,induce psychological/mental disorders,and seriously affect the operational effectiveness of the army.In the United States military strategy and national defense security planning,it was pointed out that the advantage of capturing the information field in future operations plays a decisive role in the victory or defeat of the war.Because of the complexity of the mechanism of information trauma and the diversity of the injury information,although the theoretical system of information trauma has been basically constructed.However,there is still a lack of in-depth research on precision early warning and assessment protection.Today,in the field of information warfare and cyber war,which are rising rapidly in the international military struggle.In order to seize the strategic commanding point,it is a major military scientific problem to establish the evaluation criteria and protection standards of the information trauma of our army.Based on the support of the major project of army"12th Five-Year"and"13th Five-Year"key project,the information trauma assessment index system and the information trauma prediction model is established to provide an important technical support for resisting the information trauma of soldiers in the future information war.Searching for information damage effect assessment indicators and influencing factors through literature review method.To construct the index system of information trauma assessment by the method of expert analysis.According to the preliminary index system established by the theory,the questionnaire was compiled to investigate the officers and soldiers in active service.Using factor analysis to determine the effect evaluation index of information trauma.The evaluation index system contains 12indicators,namely,three dimensions of attitude,emotion and behavior,and its reliability and validity are good,which can reflect the overall situation of information trauma well.Back Propagation network analysis method was used to extract information related high risk factors,and there was a significant correlation between materiality,personal involvement and information credibility and information trauma effect?R2=0.695?,and the influence trend was consistent.We use scenario simulation and data fitting to quantify the relationship between materiality,personal involvement,information credibility and information trauma effect,and establish information trauma prediction model Y=-0.17+0.105X₁+0.147X₂+0.185X₃.The real frustration information was selected to verify the model.The results showed that the accuracy of the model for information trauma prediction is higher than that of the subjective evaluation method?p<0.05?.Conclusions1.The information trauma effect can be assessed from three dimensions:attitude,emotion and behavior.2.The materiality,personal involvement and credibility of information can be used as a predictor of information trauma.The three parties have a common impact on information trauma.3.Information trauma prediction model has a good prediction result for traumatic information.The innovation of this research is to introduce materiality,personal involvement into information trauma factors,and open up a new perspective for information injury assessment research.Second,the information trauma prediction model is established,which improves the information trauma warning ability of the army,and provides an important guarantee for emergency protection of information trauma.