Research On Elderly Care Service Supply System Simulation Based On System Dynamics Model

With the deepening of the aging problem in China,the contradiction between the growing population of the elderly and the increasingly miniaturization of the family structure has increased.It urgently needs to shift to social pension.China has introduced a series of policies to encourage the development of an old-age care service system and achieved preliminary results.This paper analyzes the characteristics of the provision of pension services and uses dynamic systematic methods to study the impact of policies on the elderly care services and provides reference for policy formulation.This article starts with the theory and elaborates the basic concept of old-age care services,including clarifying the difference between home,community,and institutional pensions.Secondly,summarizes the impact of old-age care services from the perspectives of population change,economic development,and the linkage of endowment methods.Thirdly,identify the optimal fiscal allocation ratio by simulating the financial support of different pension methods,and finally simulate different scenarios.Finally,changes the GDP growth rate,disability rate,and market participation rate respectively,to study their impact on system balance.The results show that the ratio of 75%,10%,and 15% to the financial contribution of pensions for homes,communities,and institutions respectively will enable the aged care service to reach a balance between supply and demand within 12 years.The research conclusions(1)The construction of the old-age care service system is a gradual process.The government should design from the top level and optimize the support for different old-age care methods.(2)The government,in the context of limited financial expenditures,should coordinate urban and rural areas and adjust subsidies.Strategies to stimulate effective supply;(3)Market participation can effectively improve the provision of pension services,not only to increase the proportion of private institutions in institutional pensions,but also to explore private capital participation models in home and community care;(4)Disability rates,etc.will increase the demand for social pensions,but to truly translate into effective demand,older people need to change their old-age concepts and consumer attitudes.