Research On Five-dimensional Evaluation Method Of Equipment Technology With Equilibrium Expectation

The evaluation of equipment technology is an important part of our country's equipment technology management.Reasonable and reliable evaluation results of equipment technology can be used to determine whether the technology can be used on the equipment,selection of equipment technology,evaluation of equipment technology's development status and progress control of equipment development project.It also has a great effect on the modernization of our country's equipment and the promotion of our country's national defense capabilities.However,the existing evaluation methods of equipment technology: Technology Readiness Level(TRL)is too subjective,and its evaluation indexes are incomprehensive,so it can not meet the current requirements for the evaluation of equipment technology.Therefore,it is urgent to set up a scientific and comprehensive evaluation system of equipment technology.First of all,according to the constraints of equipment technology development at present stage,and the national strategic requirements for the development of equipment technology,this paper proposes a new five dimensional evaluation index system of equipment technology.Then the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)is used to evaluate the equipment technology from five dimensions.From the evaluation results of the five dimensions,the current situation of equipment technology can be fully obtained.Secondly,we present a new model using Sigmoid to get equipment technology's score under equilibrium expectation.The model we present uses the variance and Sigmoid function to get the non-equilibrium penalty value of the five-dimensional evaluation index.And it is combined with the mean of the five-dimensional index's score to obtain the equipment technology's score under the equilibrium expectation.And the model proposed in this paper is compared with the evaluation method based on Gini coefficient,when the balance value is adjusted in a certain range,the method proposed in this paper can reflect the influence of the imbalance of the five dimensions better.Then,in order to get the best improvement measures of equipment technology,this paper puts forward the backtracking model of equipment technology's evaluation model.The backtracking model of equipment technology evaluation system is obtained from five-dimensional evaluation model based on AHP and the comprehensive evaluation model based on the equilibrium expectation of Sigmoid.Then because the optimal improvement measures of equipment technology are also related to the improvement cost of each index,we combine the backtracking model with the improvement cost to get the best improvement measure.Using the backtracking model we can get the best improvement measure for the development of equipment technology.Finally,in order to analyze the accuracy or credibility of expert's evaluation results,a method of expert's score reliability analysis based on pseudo correlation coefficient is proposed.Firstly,this paper points out the shortcomings and defects of the existing reliability analysis method based on deviation and the true score theory.Then,based on their shortcomings,this paper presents a reliability analysis method based on pseudo correlation coefficient.At last,we used two sets of experiments to prove that the reliability analysis method proposed in this paper has the advantages of better robustness and more accurate results than the existing two methods.