Trade Effects Of China's Direct Investment In Countries Along The Belt And Road

Outward foreign direct investment(OFDI)plays an increasingly important role in economic development and has gradually become an important means to promote economic development.At the same time,with the continuous improvement of Internet penetration rate and the rapid development of e-commerce,online consumption demand shows a trend of geometric growth.In this context,the relationship between outward foreign direct investment and trade,and whether the change of trade mode causes the change of trade effect are the issues that this paper wants to explore and study.In November 2013,China formally adopted the initiative of "the Belt and Road" as a national strategy to coordinate China's overall opening up.Therefore,it is of theoretical value and practical significance to conduct research on investment and trade as a research object.This paper is based on the investment-trade theory.Firstly,it clarifies the concepts of substitution effect theory and creation effect theory,combs the literature of scholars at home and abroad,as well as the analysis method theory based on panel data.Secondly,starting from the current situation of China's outward foreign direct investment and trade,this paper briefly analyzed the characteristics of China's outward foreign direct investment and trade,which laid the foundation for the follow-up empirical and cause analysis.Thirdly,in the empirical analysis stage,this paper uses the panel data of direct investment and import and export trade between 59 countries along the "the Belt and Road" in 2007-2016 years,and separately studies the trade effects of outward foreign direct investment separately from the overall,regional and product structure.The study found that China has no significant trade impact on the overall investment of the "the Belt and Road",thereby dividing the country into high-income countries,middle-high income countries,and low and middle-low income countries.The results show that the trade impact of outward foreign direct investment on the countries along the belt is generally not significant,but the effects on different trade structures of different income countries are different,and there is a double effect of creation and substitution.At the same time,according to the previous empirical results,the Internet has a significant positive impact,so the Internet penetration rate and the interaction of outward foreign direct investment are added.From the overall trade scale effect and trade structure effect,the interaction between Internet penetration rate and outward foreign direct investment is analyzed and explored respectively.The results show that the level of Internet development has an impact on outward foreign direct investment.The trade effect of capital has played a positive role.Finally,combined with the analysis of the empirical results,we put forward some policy suggestions,such as strengthening macro guidance,actively enhancing cooperation,improving infrastructure and improving the level of Internet development,so as to provide beneficial ideas for the "the Belt and Road" initiative.