The Study Of The Relationship Between Gansu Housing Price Fluctuations And Policy Regulation

In recent years,the rising price of commercial housing in China has become a common concern of all sectors of society."Housing is used for living,not for speculation",can fully prove that housing prices not only have consumption attributes,but also have a strong investment attributes.In view of the problem of high housing prices caused by more and more speculative activities,the government has frequently introduced regulatory policies.However,due to the singularity,discontinuity and lag of regulatory policies,the expected regulatory purposes have not been achieved,and some cities even have the phenomenon of higher and higher housing prices.This coexistence of high housing prices and strict regulation makes us wonder whether the reasons leading to the sustained rise of housing prices in China are related to frequent policy regulation besides the economic fundamentals.If the regulation of housing market policy really affects the fluctuation of housing prices,how does it affect the internal law of action and the effect of regulation and control?The relationship between price fluctuation and government regulation policy plays an important role in formulating regulation policy scientifically and stabilizing housing price.The housing market has a strong regional heterogeneity,which may not be a good representative of the national research.It can only serve as a reference for the average development of the entire housing market.Therefore,this paper chooses the housing market of Gansu Province as the research object,and chooses ARCH family model as the main method to analyze the fluctuation of financial asset prices to study the relationship between housing price fluctuation and policy regulation in Gansu Province.The contents of this study include:1.firstly,it reviews and summarizes the relevant domestic and foreign achievements of this research object;2.Describes the development of housing market in Gansu Province in recent ten years,and collects and collates the important housing regulation policies since 2003,and finds that there is a certain correlation between the fluctuation of housing price and the policy regulation in Gansu Province;3.It divides the regulation policies into four categories to sort out the shadow of housing price separately.The transmission mechanism of sound;4.Empirical analysis method to further study the relationship between regulation policy and housing price fluctuation in Gansu Province.It mainly includes three parts:The first part is to select the best static comparative model by comparing the data of the whole sample interval from 2003 to 2017 with ARCH family model,and the second part is to divide the whole sample into three different periods by using EGARCH model to compare and analyze the fluctuation of housing price in Gansu Province by different policy control means in a specific period.The third part further studies the dynamic effects through Granger causality test,impulse function and variance analysis.Through theoretical and empirical research,the following conclusions are drawn:there is a correlation between housing price fluctuation and policy regulation in Gansu Province,housing price fluctuation has agglomeration effect and Asymmetric bars response;monetary policy,fiscal policy,purchase restriction policy have significant differences in the long-term and short-term impact on housing prices,land policy has a very limited and negative impact on housing prices.However,the impact is relatively limited;in addition,the expected factors of market instability caused by frequent regulation of the housing market after 2008 have a significant impact on the fluctuation of housing prices.The following suggestions are put forward:promoting the construction of market-oriented control mechanism of interest rate and land supply;broadening the investment field of fixed assets,optimizing the investment structure of fixed assets,and improving the utilization efficiency of fixed assets;giving full play to the short-term control role of purchase restriction policy and implementing comprehensive control of various policies.Establish a long-term and effective supply and demand regulation mechanism to guide consumers' rational expectations through a variety of channels.