Population Ageing,working Outside And Household Savings Rate

The aging of the population has always been a hot issue of concern to the social and academic circles.According to the data of the fifth census,the population over 60 years old is about 130 million people,accounting for 10.45%,and the number of people over 65 years old is about 95.20 million,accounting for 7.09%.In accordance with international standards,China officially entered the stage of population aging in the millennium.According to the data from the sixth census,the number of people over the age of 60 is about 177.6 million,accounting for 13.31%,and the number of people over 65 is about 119 million,accounting for 8.91%.In the ten years of the two censuses,the proportion of the elderly population has been rising,the problem of China's aging population has become more and more serious,and the pressure of old-age pensions will increase.According to the interpretation of the life cycle theory,when the proportion of the elderly in the society increases,the savings in the youth stage are lower than the consumption of the elderly group,and the overall social savings level will show a downward trend;on the other hand,from the Chinese situation In order to support the elderly,people may give up the opportunity to go out to work to bring high income,but choose to work in a place closer to their parents.This may reduce the family income brought by migrant workers and further affect the household savings rate.Combining the above two aspects,in a society where aging is becoming more and more serious,there is downward pressure on the household savings rate and the migrant workers,and the negative impact of migrant workers will be further transmitted to the household savings rate.In contrast to the 40 th anniversary of China's economic reform and opening up,China's high savings rate and the large amount of cheap capital and labor brought by the migrant workers provide a solid foundation for the rapid development of China's economy.Therefore,in order to continue to provide sufficient capital and labor for the Chinese economy,the problem of population aging must be properly resolved.This paper empirically studies the impact of aging on household savings rate,and further analyzes the channels through which migrant workers affect household savings rates,and proposes policy recommendations based on conclusions,contributing to China's economic development.China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)used in this paper.From the overall data,the aging of the population not only directly reduces the household savings rate,but also the aging of the population will weaken the willingness of family members working outside the home,thereby reducing the extra income that the migrant workers bring to the family,which indirectly affects the household savings rate.From the subsamples,the aging of rural areas significantly affects the household savings rate,while urban areas have no impact,and the impact of aging on household savings rates does not differ significantly between regions.In order to ensure the credibility of the empirical results,this paper uses the double difference method and the instrumental variable method to solve the endogeneity of the empirical results.First,according to whether there are elderly people in the family,the subjects are divided into experimental group and control group.The double difference method is used to verify the direct influence of aging on household savings rate.The results show that after controlling the family health care expenditure,the death of the elderly will significantly reduce the household savings rate,combined with the precautionary savings theory and data to show changes in household consumption behavior,this paper believes that the death of the elderly led to the release of preventive savings.In the urban and rural areas,this effect is significantly different,only in urban areas;in the eastern and central provinces,the effect is not significant,the western provinces are significant.After that,this article excludes the poor physical samples of the elderly and analyzes only the death of the elderly who are healthy.The study found that except for the western province's did coefficient is not significant,the other results are the same as before,but the significance level is reduced.The possible reason is the family.Precautionary savings for healthy elderly people are not as good as those with poor health,and less are released after the death of the elderly.Secondly,this paper uses the instrumental variable method to verify the indirect impact of population aging on household savings rate.The conclusions show that with the increase of the proportion of elderly people in the family,the willingness of family members to go out to work decreases,which further affects the household savings rate,and this effect Only significant in rural areas.Therefore,the conclusion also indirectly confirms China's traditional thinking-" While one's parents are alive,one should not travel to distant places.If it is necessary to travel,there should be a definite direction."...