| In recent years,"System of Systems(SoS)" and "SoS architectural modeling" have become research hotspots in the field of military.Defending national interests and territorial security,regional air defense SoS has major national defense significance.Due to its complexity and the requirement of interoperability,interconnection and interaction among component systems,architecture modeling of regional air defense SoS became much more difficult.Mission reliability of regional air defense SoS guarantees that combat SoS can maintain its operational capability and accomplish its mission.Carrying out research of regional air defense SoS modeling and reliability analysis is an important topic of SoS architecture design and assessment,and has certain research significance.Based on the research of US Department of Defense’s DoDAF(Department of Defense Architecture Framework),this thesis extracts eleven view models of DoDAF and extends three of them and finally constructs the view description model of regional air defense SoS which contains reliability information of the SoS.Combined with the general structure of Agent,transformational rules of DoDAF view description model to Agent model are studied,organizational structure and interaction protocol are defined for each Agent which represents the component system of regional air defense SoS.According to the definition rules,the executable model of regional air defense SoS built with Agent-based modeling is generated on AnyLogic platform.According to the reliability information in the DoDAF description model,description of state transition,failure rate and maintenance rate are added to the executable model,the simulation method of mission reliability analysis of regional air defense SoS is obtained.By specifying calculation method of reliability in a single simulation and the statistical analysis of multiple simulation results,mission reliability of regional air defense SoS and criticality of each weapon system in the SoS to mission reliability of the whole SoS are obtained.Finally,due to the fact that feasibility of Agent-based modeling in reliability analysis remains to be verified,a narrow reliability analysis was performed on regional air defense SoS with Bayesian network.By the method of mapping DoDAF view description model to fault tree model and then mapping the fault tree model to Bayesian network model,Bayesian network models of three phased tasks are obtained.Finally,Bayesian network reliability analysis model of the full-stage task of regional air defense SoS is obtained with phased task Bayesian network models and the combination rule.Mission reliability of regional air defense SoS is obtained with Hugin software and the correctness of the reliability analysis result of Agent-based modeling simulation method is verified.The results show that Agent-based modeling can be used as the dynamic executable part of regional air defense SoS modeling and Agent-based modeling also provides an effective simulation method for SoS mission reliability analysis. |
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