Dynamic Credit Evaluation Of Small And Micro Enterprises Based On Tax Information

Small and micro enterprises play an important role in the development of China's national economy.However,at present,small and micro enterprises still have problems such as financing difficulty and expensive financing,which are rooted in the difficulty of credit evaluation caused by information asymmetry.How to build the credit evaluation system of small and micro enterprises and how to use the credit evaluation method are the key to solve this problem.Firstly,this paper summarizes the concepts of credit evaluation and the research at home and abroad.According to the leading data sources used for credit evaluation,the credit evaluation system is divided into four categories,namely financial information,supply chain information,transaction information and tax information credit evaluation system.On the premise of considering the static information such as business registration information,enterprise credit history,innovation and development ability,the dynamic tax information in the business activities of small and micro enterprises are mainly included in the credit evaluation system.To determine dynamic tax bill data standardization,reflect the dynamic change trend of index factor,time weight is determined based on the minimum variance principle,design a small micro enterprise credit evaluation based on tax information dynamic index,the comprehensive dynamic index and static index,determined by the analytic hierarchy dynamic small micro enterprise credit evaluation model is constructed.Secondly,the credit dynamic evaluation model of small and micro enterprises is used to make an empirical analysis of 755 small and micro enterprises.Thesis mainly from the dynamic information and static information of industry and commerce,Tianyan credit score three sides facing the small micro enterprise statistical description analysis,the analysis found small micro enterprises are mainly distributed in Fujian,Zhejiang and Guangdong province,industry concentration is accommodation and catering industry and the wholesale and retail,a sole proprietorship enterprise proportion is as high as 86.1%.In addition,the average monthly tax amount of each industry is less than 5,000 yuan,and the peak value of tax paid occurs at the end of the quarter and the end of the year,with obvious periodicity.The results of dynamic credit evaluation show that from the credit level of the latest period,the average comprehensive credit score of these enterprises is 45.36 points,with a median of 40.27 points,which is higher than the mean score(26.80 points)and the median score(25.79 points).From the change trend of credit,the comprehensive credit score of enterprises in various industries in the 12 th period has a flat change trend,and the comprehensive credit score of most enterprises at the end of the quarter and the end of the year is relatively high.Then,k-means clustering algorithm is used to cluster 755 small and micro enterprises based on 23 characteristic variables of credit evaluation,and three groups of classification of credit level are obtained.The number of enterprises is 31,651 and 73 in order.It is characterized by good credit record and tax payment of the first kind of enterprises.The second kind of enterprises are in good condition and their tax payment is at a medium level.The third kind of enterprises are at a low level in terms of tax payment and performance.Finally,by comparing the dynamic comprehensive evaluation results,clustering results and scoring results of credit investigation institutions(Tian yan cha),it can be obtained that the enterprises with clustering results of one,two and three categories have good,medium and poor credit dynamic comprehensive evaluation results respectively.There is a significant difference in the overall distribution of the credit score of the three kinds of enterprises.The credit score of the first kind of enterprises is generally higher,while the credit score of the third kind of enterprises is lower.The correlation of static credit score,comprehensive credit score,dynamic credit score and Tianyan credit score decreases in turn.The above comparison shows that the dynamic credit evaluation model of small and micro enterprises designed in this paper is feasible,operable and effective.