Research On Dynamic Evaluation Model Of SME Credit

SMEs are important carriers for mass entrepreneurship and innovation.They have an irreplaceable role in increasing employment,promoting economic growth,technological innovation and social harmony and stability,and have important strategic significance for national economic and social development.However,the difficulty of financing for SMEs is widespread.Many SMEs go bankrupt because of difficulties in financing and expensive financing.It is difficult for small and medium-sized enterprises to achieve their own scale development without external funding support.Therefore,it is of great significance to build a reasonable and comprehensive credit assessment system for SMEs and find an applicable assessment model to alleviate the financing difficulties of SMEs and reduce the credit risk of commercial banks.This article selects SMEs as the research object.In the past,most of the literature select only financial indicators.Therefore,this paper considers both financial indicators and non-financial indicators to build a more comprehensive corporate credit evaluation indicator system.Because there may be large correlation and multicollinearity among the indicators,the indicators need to be screened.Most literatures use the factor analysis method to screen the indicators.This paper uses a Generalized Fisher Score algorithm to select the indicators,which can consider the combination of features and eliminate redundant indicators.Most of the previous researches were static credit evaluations,ignoring the dynamic changes of time and corporate development,and few studies currently consider the impact of the development trend of the evaluated objects on the results of dynamic comprehensive evaluation.Therefore,the concept of "development factor" is introduced in this paper.We propose an improved dynamic comprehensive evaluation method.This paper first classifies default and normal enterprises by linear support vector machine method,so as to train the weights of the indicators,and obtain the static credit evaluation value of enterprises according to the weights of the indicators.Then,the development factor is applied to static evaluation values,and the static evaluation values of enterprises at each moment are adjusted through the development factor.Finally,based on the idea of "thick today and thin ancient",time weights are determined,and time weights are used to weight the credit evaluation value at each time to finally obtain the dynamic credit evaluation value of enterprises.The dynamic comprehensive evaluation method of this paper takes into account factors such as enterprise indicators,credit development trends and time.Through the dynamic comprehensive evaluation model,decision makers can dynamically monitor credit conditions of enterprises,observing small changes in credit conditions and possible emergencies,and adjust the priority of their loans to avoid losses brought by sudden changes of enterprises.