Effect Evaluation And Policy Research Of Driving Restriction Regulation Policy

In recent years,the number of cars in China's cities has been increasing,which not only brings convenience to urban residents'lives,but also causes traffic congestion and air pollution problems.In order to alleviate traffic congestion and improve air quality,many cities in China have introduced driving restriction regulation policies.At present,the academia has studied the validity of motor vehicle restriction regulation policy,but there is no consistent conclusion on whether to reduce traffic congestion and improve air quality.The current research work mainly focuses on the choice of residents'travel modes,traffic flow and air quality,that is,studying the impact of the implementation of motor vehicle restriction regulation policies on residents'travel modes,traffic congestion and air quality,and has achieved certain research results.Although different types of driving restriction regulation policies are used by more and more cities,these restriction policies are heterogeneous and regional.Whether such policies can reduce air pollution and alleviate traffic congestion,and which restriction policies are more effective,have been controversial.Therefore,this paper will study from the following aspects:First,empirically examine the governance effects of driving restriction regulation policies on traffic congestion.Based on the quarterly data of the average speed of cars in the peak period of 43 cities in China,this paper uses the DID method to study the effect of restriction regulation policies on traffic congestion.The results show that,on the whole,restriction policy can significantly alleviate urban traffic congestion.Among them,the average speed of automobiles increased by 1.53 km/h in peak period after the implementation of the restriction policy.At the same time,when the restriction policy is upgraded,the average speed of automobiles in peak period will further increase by 1.43 km/h,which shows that the restriction policy upgrade is more conducive to alleviating traffic congestion.Compared with tail number limit,single and double number limit is more effective in alleviating traffic congestion.In addition,the implementation of the restriction regulation policy in first-tier cities has the strongest governance effect on traffic congestion,followed by second-tier and third-tier cities,while the traffic congestion control effect of the new first-tier cities is the weakest.Second,empirically test the effect of driving restriction regulation policies on air pollution.This paper uses abundant high-frequency hourly data of monitoring stations,including AQI and PM_2.5,PM₁₀,SO₂,NO₂,CO,O₃,to analyze whether upgrade of off peak traffic restriction is helpful to improve air quality.The results show that:?1?The upgrade of off peak traffic restriction is helpful to improve air quality.The upgrade of off peak traffic restriction has both short-term and long-term effects and is sustainable.In addition,the evidence of heterogeneity analysis shows that there is no significant difference in the impact of CO on the restricted and non-restricted areas,but the impacts of the upgrade of off peak traffic restriction on other pollutants are different in restricted and non-restricted areas.?2?Cross-temporal and cross-spatial substitution will weaken the effectiveness of restriction policy.Travelers in Hangzhou may change their travel time to avoid travel restrictions?cross-time substitution?or to make a detour around the restricted area to reach their destination?cross-space substitution?.Third,empirically examine the impact of driving restriction regulation policies on economic development.Based on the quarterly GDP data of 43 cities in China,this paper uses the DID method to study the effect of restriction regulation policies on economic development and whether heterogeneous regulatory policies have heterogeneous effects on economic development.The results show that,on the whole,restriction policy will hinder the economic development of the city to a certain extent.Among them,the per capita GDP decreased by 1590 yuan/person after the implementation of the restriction policy.At the same time,when the restriction policy is upgraded,the per capita GDP will be further reduced by 540 yuan/person,which indicates that the upgrading of regulatory policy will further inhibit economic development.Compared with tail number limit,the negative effect of single and double number limit on economic development is more obvious.In addition,the implementation of the restriction regulation policy in first-tier cities has the strongest inhibition effect on economic development,followed by the new first-tier cities,while the second and third tier cities have the weakest inhibition effect on economic development.This paper gives a reasonable explanation and analysis of the research conclusions,and puts forward policy optimization suggestions based on the empirical results:?1?Scientifically introduce driving restriction regulation policies;?2?Implement a tiered restricted purchase and restriction license policy;?3?Use innovative technology to build smart transportation;?4?Use economic means to optimize transportation systems.Compared with the previous research literature,the innovation of this paper lies in the following three points:?1?Analyzed the lifting effect of driving restriction regulation policy on traffic congestion.This paper can enrich the existing literature on the impact of single city's driving restriction regulation policy on traffic congestion.?2?The reduction effect of the driving restriction regulation policy on air pollution was examined.This paper uses the more microscopic data of various monitoring stations in the city to study the heterogeneity impact of the driving restriction regulation policy on the restricted and non-restricted areas.?3?Seeking the restraining effect of the driving restriction regulation policy on economic development.There are few empirical studies on the impact of driving restriction regulation policy on economic development in the existing literature.This paper can enrich the existing literature on this aspect of research.