A Study On Paul Kennedy's Strategic Thoughts

The rise and fall of great powers is one of the important contents in the study of world history and history of international relations.Paul Kennedy's theory of the rise and fall of great powers provides a new perspective to observe the law of the rise and fall of great powers in history.The interpretation of his academic thoughts is helpful to deepen our understanding of the rise and fall of great powers.At present,the existing research results at home and abroad are mainly reflected in the comments on his works,or the analysis of one aspect of his thoughts,relative fragmentation and decentralization.This paper hopes to integrate the relevant research results,and through the interpretation of his works,to form a more overall understanding of Paul Kennedy's strategic thinking.The study of Paul Kennedy's strategic thought can provide some historical and strategic reference for China to formulate and implement its national strategy.The specific research contents are as follows.Chapter 1 Paul Kennedy and his Academic Contributions.Paul Kennedy is one of the most famous historians of international relations and strategy since the 1980 s.His academic experience can be divided into three stages: the period of his PhD,the period of the university of east Anglia and the period of Yale university.Paul Kennedy's academic research mainly involves: grand strategy and diplomatic issues;Great power struggle for hegemony and great power rise and fall;Britain's maritime hegemony and other naval history;The Pacific war,appeasement policy and other world war ii issues;Britain-German relations;The question of international organizations centered on the United Nations;The prospect of the future.In terms of his major academic contributions,Paul Kennedy is the most distinguished in the study of the history of international relations and strategic history.At the same time,he also looks forward to the future and makes a strategic prediction attempt.Chapter 2 the Concept on the Rise and Fall of Great Powers."The rise and fall of great powers" published in 1987,was Paul Kennedy's book of fame.The book has a grand system.It reviews the rise and fall history of the Habsburg family,Britain?France and other major countries over the past 500 years since 1500.This fully reflects Paul Kennedy's overall view,and also embodies Paul Kennedy's view of the rise and fall of great powers.Powers rise and fall has always been the hot topic in academic circles,but Paul Kennedy did not stick to his view of big rise and fall in particular emphasis on two counts: one is that the economic factors and the relationship between the rise and fall of the great powers,economic is the most important foundation support great power status,economic factors determine the outcome of the war,the economic factors affecting the evolution of international pattern;The second is the link between over-expansion and the decline of great powers.Chapter 3 the Concept of Grand Strategy.Paul Kennedy's study of grand strategy began in the rise and fall of British maritime dominance.His most important contribution to the study of grand strategy was to point out that true grand strategy was needed in peacetime.The second is to emphasize that the grand strategy needs clear strategic objectives as well as specific strategic means.In the establishment of grand strategy,the first is that the strategic goal should be specific,and the second is that the strategic goal and the means(resource endowment)should coordinate with each other.Third,in the process of grand strategy implementation,in addition to economic and military factors,other factors also play a very important role,which are the factors that countries need to consider in the process of grand strategy formulation and implementation,such as diplomatic factors,national morale,national leaders and geopolitical relations.Chapter 4 Forward-looking Strategic Vision.Not only in history,but also in strategic foresight.In 1993,he published a book called "preparing for a rainy day: preparing for the 21 st century" in which he predicted the challenges ahead.He believes that the world will fall into a pessimistic state and mankind will face bigger problems than ever before,such as population problem,wealth gap problem,food problem,employment problem,environment problem,transnational problem,international terrorism problem,failed state problem and so on.At the same time,he also pointed out the solution to the problem.He stressed the need for national reforms,one of which is to improve education at home.Because the challenges are global and international,he also stressed the need for international means to solve problems through cooperation among nations,and it is the United Nations that has the potential to do so.