The Effect Of Real Effective Exchange Rate Changes On Employment

This paper studies the effect of real effective exchange rate movements on employment in Zhejiang Province.How does the real effective exchange rate affect local employment?What are the long-term and short-term impacts of the total employment and employment structure?In the face of currency fluctuations,what measures should relevant departments take to reduce employment pressure?There are what need to be discussed.In the basic theory section,this paper analyzes three channels of effective exchange rate influence employment:import and export trade,foreign direct investment and the industrial structure.Then we analyze these three channels in detail.The empirical part is divided into two chapters.The fourth and fifth chapters use the data of Zhejiang Province from 1986 to 2015.Then we build VAR model and do the empirical analysis.In chapter 4,the reform system of RMB exchange rate is introduced.The current employment structure of Zhejiang Province is analyzed.In chapter 5,the current employment amount of Zhejiang Province and local labor supply status are expounded.All these provide the background and basis for the subsequent empirical analysis.The fourth chapter studies the effect of real effective exchange rate fluctuation on employment of different industries in Zhejiang Province.The empirical results show that in the short term:the appreciation of the real effective exchange rate of RMB has a negative impact on the employment of the local first and secondary industries in Zhejiang Province.It will promote the employment of tertiary industry.In the long term,the appreciation of the real effective exchange rate of RMB has a positive effect on the local secondary industry and the employment number of the tertiary industry in Zhejiang Province,but it reduced the number of jobs in the primary industry.The fifth chapter studies the effect of real effective exchange rate on total employment in Zhejiang Province.Empirical results show that the appreciation of the real effective exchange rate of RMB will exert some pressure on the total employment amount in the short term,but in the long run it is still the growth in total employment.Based on the results of empirical research,reasonable Suggestions are put forward.The first is to maintain a stable RMB exchange rate.While slowing the pace of appreciation,we are actively promoting the internationalization of the RMB.In addition,we should vigorously promote the adjustment of industrial structure and optimize the structure of export commodities.The local government should improve the employment policy.And strengthen the medium and small export enterprise to exchange rate fluctuation coping mechanism.