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A Study On The Influences Of Real Effective Exchange Rate Of The Yen On Employment In Japan

Posted on:2019-05-03Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:B Q SongFull Text:PDF
GTID:2417330572454993Subject:World economy
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Exchange rate is a significant variable and policy tool for foreign economic activities of a country.Exchange rate movement affects domestic trade and investment demands by influencing the relative price of commodities in the international market.In addition,exchange rate will indirectly affect domestic production and consumption through multiple channels and change social resource allocation and labor force demands,so as to affect employment situation of a country and labor force flow in industry.After the war,the Bretton Woods System determined the international monetary system centered on USD under the gold exchange standard system.Each member state generally implemented the fixed exchange.In the early 1970s,after the Bretton Woods System was crashed,USD was disconnected with gold,so as to establish the international monetary system of dollar standard system.In addition,international exchange system was turned to the floating exchange rate system from fixed exchange.Each country entered into the exchange fluctuation period.The postwar economic development of Japan showed the typical "export-oriented"features.Stable exchange was crucial to its economic development.Japanese economy was developed at top speed in 1955-1971,which was achieved under the fixed exchange rate system.In addition,some data showed that after the war,domestic employment status in Japan was always better than European and American developed countries for special lifetime employment system and other internal governance modes in Japan.As a matter of fact,considering export-oriented features of Japanese economic development,exchange rate movement is always an important factor influencing employment.Particularly,after entering into the floating exchange rate period,with the exchange rate movement of yen,Japanese employment status suffers from the obvious change.Therefore,whether there is the long-run equilibrium relationship between exchange rate movement of yen and Japanese employment?What's the influence of exchange rate movement of yen on Japanese employment?Whether exchange rate movement of yen will cause different influences on employment of three main industries?How can governments and enterprises deal with influences of exchange rate movement on the market and employment?Based on the above-mentioned problems,by selecting relevant data of real effective exchange rate of yen and Japanese employment,the author in this thesis analyzes influences of real effective exchange rate of yen on Japanese employment through theoretical and empirical analysis,expecting to provide certain reference for further open economic development mode in China.In this thesis,the author will discuss from the following aspects.First of all,in theoretical analysis,the author summarizes the postwar exchange rate movement process of yen,reviews Japanese employment and historical truth of employment in three main industries,and analyzes influences of exchange rate movement of yen on Japanese employment in three main industries from the perspectives of foreign trade,direct investment and international capital flow based on relevant statistical data.In this thesis,the author thinks that based on Japanese trade structure and industrial structure,appreciation of exchange rate will generate the positive influences on Japanese employment in the secondary industry and tertiary industry,but cause negative influences on employment in the primary industry by affecting foreign trade,direct investment and international capital flow.On the contrary,depreciation of exchange rate will generate the negative influences on Japanese employment in secondary industry and tertiary industry,but cause the positive influences on employment in primary industry.Secondly,relevant data between 1980 and 2016 are selected to carry out co-integration test and Granger causality test between Japanese Yen's real effective exchange rate,the gap between imports and exports in Japan,overseas direct investment,net inflows of foreign direct investment and total employment in Japan and employment volume in three major industries.Test results show that:there is a long-term balance mechanism between Japanese Yen's real effective exchange rate and total employment in Japan,and 1%rise in the real effective exchange rate will boost Japan's total employment by 1.056%.In the meantime,there are also positive correlations between the gap between imports and exports in Japan,overseas direct investment&net inflows of foreign direct investment and Japan's total investment.Above variables are all Granger reasons of Japan's total employment.On this basis,the empirical results of co-integration test and Granger causality test on Japanese Yen's real effective exchange rate and employment volume in three major industries indicate that there is a negative correlation between Yen's real effective exchange rate and the employment in the first industry,while the correlation between Yen's real effective exchange rate and the employment in the second and tertiary industries is positive.Japanese Yen's real effective exchange rate is the Granger reason of the employment in the second and tertiary industries,but not the first industry.In the end,the author summarizes the corresponding enlightenment that is deserved for China's reference.
Keywords/Search Tags:Yen, Real effective exchange rate, Employment, Influence, Granger causality test
PDF Full Text Request
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