Analysis Of Interaction Between Population Structure And Economy Based On Vector Autoregression Model

With the continuous reduction of fertility and mortality in China,the population structure in China has changed,and at the same time it has also brought a chain reaction to the economy.How to combine the two-child birth policy implemented in China and explore the interactive influence of changes in China's population structure and economic growth,which is more in line with the reality of the country,has a strong practical significance.This paper first uses the grey correlation analysis method to explore the correlation between demographic characteristics and economic characteristics,and uses a strong selection of related indicators to construct a basic vector autoregressive(VAR)model.In the vector autoregressive model,the Granger causality test finds that the number of young and old people affects the labor force and economic factors,and is not affected by the labor force and economic factors.As a result,the number of young and old people is used as an exogenous variable,and the labor force and economic factors are used as endogenous variables.The cointegration test found that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between labor and economic factors,there are at least two or more cointegration equations,and then explore the trend of interaction between population structure and economy without policy factors.Next build a revised vector autoregressive model.Policy factors have changed the relationship between the population structure and the internal and external variables of the economy.At the same time,the role of population and economy has also changed.Therefore,adding policy factors to build a revised vector autoregressive model.In the modified vector autoregressive model,the Granger causality test found that the population of old and young is only the Granger cause of economic factors.Then demographic indicators and economic indicators were included as endogenous variables in the revised vector autoregressive model,and the cointegration test found that there was a long-term cointegration of the population structure and economy,and there was at least one more cointegration equation.The pulse analysis and variance decomposition analysis of the co-integration equation were performed to further explore the interactive influence of population structure and economic growth.Finally,we compare and analyze the changes of the interaction between population structure and economy based on the VAR model and the modified VAR model,and then propose countermeasures and suggestions.