Economic Forecast And Urban Comprehensive Competitiveness Of Liaoning Province

Liaoning Province,as the eldest son of the Republic,once looked down upon the whole country proudly.However,with the rapid rise of coastal cities in the South and the rapid development of the national economy,the economy of Northeast China has gradually declined.Liaoning Province even experienced economic regression in 2016.So how to predict the macroeconomic form accurately and reasonably according to the relevant economic indicators has become one of the topics.Chinese scholars have paid more and more attention to it.Gross domestic product,it can well reflect the macro-economic situation of a region.If the state and government want to effectively regulate and control the economic situation of a certain region.First of all,they need to make a scientific analysis and prediction of the regional economy.Then,judging whether the economic scale should be stimulated or restrained according to the results obtained,and then formulate corresponding measures to achieve the purpose of macro-control.Generally speaking,there are two kinds of prediction methods: linear regression and non-linear regression.Multivariate linear regression is a commonly used linear prediction method.There are many non-linear prediction methods,such as random forest method,support vector regression method,BP neural network method and so on.This thesis intends to use multivariate linear regression analysis,random forest,support vector regression analysis and time series analysis commonly used in econometric to forecast and analyze the economic situation of Liaoning Province.It also proposes support vector machine model based on principal component analysis,support vector machine model based on Grey correlation,and support vector machine model based on LLE dimensionality reduction.Comparing the accuracy of each model to determine which model is most suitable for Liaoning Province's economic forecast,it has certain guiding significance for the government to carry out macro-control.Liaoning has 14 prefecture-level cities,including Shenyang,Dalian and they play an important part in the whole country.Therefore,this thesis uses the factor analysis method,calculates the main factor score and the comprehensive score of 14 cities according to the relevant economic indicators,and gives the ranking.At the same time,14 cities in Liaoning Province were classified and their pedigree maps were drawn by using the method of systematic clustering.It has an important reference value and a great guiding role for the local government in the economic regulation and control of the region.