The Statistical Principle And Application Of Capture-recapture Method

Capture-recapture method(CMR method for short)is a method to estimate the size of biological population based on two or more independent samples.CMR techniques have been generated for a long time.They were first used by wildlife scientists to estimate the number of certain wild animals(such as birds and animals,fish,insects,etc.)within a limited range.In it,two samples of CMR method is the most simple,it is applicated in the field of ecology in the earliest time.In 1894,foreign ecological scientists Peterson used this approach in mark shoals,and in 1917 Dalh truly applied this method in the fishing industry,which is also the most begin to contact our understanding and methods of capture tag to capture and then modified to the epidemiological study.For example,in 1949,Deming and Sekar used this method in the estimation of the registration of birth and death rates.This marks the formal application of the CMR method in the field of human health.Later it was improved and extended to the study of epidemiological problems,the study of human diseases,health,population census assessment and other statistical fields.However,when applying the dual CMR method,scientists also found the limitations and differences of this method.Therefore,in 1938,Schnable,a foreign scientist,first proposed the multiple CMR method and applied it to estimate the fish population.Nowadays,dual CMR method and multiple CMR method have become a widely used survey and analysis method in many fields.With the continuous expansion of the application of CMR method and the effective solution of more and more technical conditions,CMR method has been more widely used in the investigation and research of infectious diseases,bad behavior,drug abuse,injury and so on.In this paper,the first chapter and the second chapter introduce the historical source of the CMR method,statistical principles,relevant formulas and etc.Meanwhile,for the restriction condition in the application principle,that is,to ensure the homogeneity of individuals,analytic hierarchy process is introduced,so that the result is more accurate.The second most major expounds the CMR method in the application of assessment of engineering in the field of computer software.Software quality evaluation refers to the researchers and the user of software using the automated artificial way to browse,to test and to check whether a software design and function can meet the description and design objectives.Software quality assessment is a very important link in the development and utilization of software.According to the differences of the software development cycle,it is divided into five stages,which are:demand stage,quality stage,function stage,cost stage and maintenance stage.In these five stages,what is more important and often needs to be evaluated are demand and quality.Therefore,the third chapter introduces the foundation and feasibility of this method in this field.The third part mainly introduces the CMR method in the application of AIDS.At the same time,in order to determine the value of the number of sources K,the cardinality estimation method of five sources is considered to be better on the basis of determining the number of code lines of each optimal estimation.AIDS is known as acquired immunodeficiency syndrome,which is a kind of harm to the human body and it is a infectious disease.HIV is the virus that can cause AIDS,which can attack the body’s immune system and organs and destroy a large number of cells in the human body.So the people who are infected with the virus that causes AIDS will lose immune function.Thus CMR method used to study the problem of AIDS is very important.In the fourth chapter,for convenient,data from five sources are integrated into data from three sources,and comparison is made at the same time.Monte Carlo method is used to simulate the three-source method,which verifies the superiority of the three-source method in dealing with AIDS.