An Empirical Study Of The Transmission Effect Of Monetary Policy On Fictitious Economy

In recent years,China's Fictitious economy has expanded rapidly,but it has gradually deviated from the real economy,resulting in the phenomenon of “de-reality and Fictitiousity”.The development of Fictitious economy is worthy of attention.For monetary policy,the external limitation of resources and environment is forced.The mode of monetary policy regulation is transformed into an environment suitable for stimulating the growth of macroeconomic endogenous growth.Under the new economic normal,monetary policy is also responsible for regulating China's macroeconomic structure.Therefore,understanding the development of the Fictitious economy and studying the effectiveness of China's monetary policy tools on the regulation of the Fictitious economy are of great significance.To this end,this paper first uses the state space model to calculate the characteristics of time-varying parameters to construct an index that reflects the development of the Fictitious economy.Then use the impulse response function method to analyze the effect of monetary policy on the Fictitious economy.In the process of constructing the Fictitious economic state index,the relevant research progress of scholars at home and abroad is firstly reviewed,and a reference for constructing the Fictitious economic state index is provided.Then,the primary selection of indicators,in addition to the four traditional variables of the financial conditions index(including interest rates,exchange rates,real estate prices and stock prices),according to the actual situation in China,increased the increase in bond prices and new financial institutions Two indicators of loans.Data preprocessing is then performed on these six indicators,including seasonal adjustments and long-term trend values.Finally,the state space model is constructed.The process includes stationarity test,measurement equation establishment and time-varying weight calculation.A Fictitious economic state index with time-varying weights is obtained.The sample interval of the data selected in this paper is from January to February 2008,from the structure of the Fictitious economic state index chart: since the financial crisis in 2008,the Fictitious economy has developed slowly,and it has experienced between 2011 and 2012.After a period of development,it fell into the bottom in 2013.Since then,it has been in frequent fluctuations.After a downturn in 2015,it experienced a positive volatility in early 2017 and began to stabilize.It also reflects the financial market in the past two years.The downturn in the situation.It is roughly in line with the actual situation in China.In the study of the transmission effect of monetary policy on the Fictitious economy,this paper selects the monetary policy tool as the representative variable of monetary policy,and uses the Fictitious economic state index constructed in the past to measure the development level of China's Fictitious economy.In the selection of monetary policy indicators,this paper selects the money supply(M2),the one-year fixed deposit interest rate(RI)and the financial institution loan amount(LO).These three monetary policy instruments can have an impact on the Fictitious economy.In the empirical process of the impact of monetary policy on the Fictitious economy,this paper will conduct a stationarity test on the three monetary policy indicators after logarithm processing,and determine the VAR lag period by 1 by the principle of AIC and SC value minimization.Co-integration tests were performed on the four time series of the VAR model using the Johnson Cointegration Test.The results show that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between the three indicators of monetary policy and the Fictitious economic state index.Finally,an impulse response function is used to determine how the Fictitious economy reacts to possible monetary policy instruments.The impulse response graph shows that increasing the money supply has no significant effect on the Fictitious economy going out of the downturn;it is not ideal to regulate the real economy by regulating the lending of financial institutions and interest rates.By establishing the FECI and analyzing the effect of monetary policy on the Fictitious economy,this paper finds that the Fictitious economy is rapid,and the existing monetary policy has limited effect on the Fictitious economy.Therefore,the development of the Fictitious economy should be coordinated with the development of the real economy,establish a rational Fictitious economic development order,enrich the monetary policy tools,strengthen the coordination of macro-prudential supervision policies and monetary policy objectives,and implement a prudent monetary policy and a proactive fiscal policy.Let the Fictitious economy better serve the real economy.