The Effect Of Aging Population On Monetary Policy In China

With the growth of the population and the change of population structure,population aging has become an important factor affecting economic growth.Since 21 st century,the rapid development of China’s ageing population,which makes economic society bear more and more heavy burden of support,the coordinated development of China’s population and economic development is in the "aging before getting rich" state.Insufficient domestic demand and the rapid development of aging population is the main problem of China’s economic and social development,the coordination of population and economic sustainable development has become an important goal of controlling the development process China in economic society.In early 2004,the people’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan in Chinese jointly sponsored by the people’s Bank of Chinese and the IMF’s "advanced China transmission mechanism of monetary policy seminar" pointed out that the problem of research on monetary policy transmission mechanism,should pay attention to the influence of population aging and social security system on the implementation effect of monetary policy.Whether the monetary policy transmission mechanism is smooth or not is directly related to the effect of monetary policy,and the credit channel of monetary policy as the main channel of China’s monetary policy has a direct impact on the steady development of the national economy.Under this background,this paper attempts to take the credit transmission mechanism from the perspective of the sort of population aging and the credit transmission mechanism on the basis of the relationship,to provide a theoretical basis for dredging the credit transmission obstacles,in order to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy in China.This paper systematically the relevant research results at domestic and abroad,described population ageing on the theoretical basis of monetary policy effect and theoretical analysis of the effect of population ageing through the credit channel effect of currency policy mechanism.On the basis of introducing the formation causes of population aging in China,current situation and future development trends of the system.Selected macroeconomic data for 2001-2015,empirical test sample period used TVP-VAR model changes in the effects of monetary policy in China.Focus on time-varying impulse response analysis to measure the effect of monetary policy.After the introduction of proxy variables of population ageing,and related economic variables to establish a state space model,through the intermediary effect test,empirical analysis of the impact of population aging on the monetary policy credit transmission channel effect,the results show that China’s population aging will weaken the effect of monetary policy through the channel of credit.Finally,combined with the theoretical analysis and empirical research,this paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations on the reform and development of China’s monetary policy in the future.First,the central bank’s monetary policy operations to reinforce the role of interest rate channel,and constantly promote the interest rate marketization process.Second,the monetary authorities should be an important factor in the aging of the population into the development of monetary policy target system,excluding credit conduction obstruction.Third,the monetary authorities in the formulation of monetary policy,should cooperate with other policies,such as fiscal policy and macro Prudential policy,to jointly safeguard macroeconomic and financial stability.Fourth,the appropriate population policy,appropriate to slow down the aging process.Fifth,gradually improve the social security system,improve the consumption demand of the elderly population,the release of the elderly consumption potential,and promote sustained economic growth...