| With the development of economy and society and the improvement of medical and health conditions,the mortality rate of the population has gradually decreased and the life expectancy has gradually increased.The longevity risk caused by this has attracted more and more people's attention.The establishment of the mortality model correctly predicts the mortality rate.It is important to control the risk of longevity.The CBD model is a well-known random mortality model,and there are few studies on the CBD model in China.Therefore,the main content of this paper is the research and application of the CBD model of population mortality in China.Since the data before 1994 in China is inconsistent,this paper uses the data on population deaths by age and sex in China from 1994 to 2015.Aiming at the irregularity of the data in years and age,a weighted maximum likelihood estimation method is used to estimate the model parameters,and the applicable age range of the model is studied.The parameters of the model are adjusted according to the life expectancy of the population published by the National Bureau of Statistics,so that the life expectancy of the model is consistent with the officially announced life expectancy.The parameter-adjusted model predicts future population mortality and life expectancy.At the same time,the Bootstrap method is applied to the parameter estimation and prediction of China's population CBD model.The uncertainty of model parameter estimation and prediction is comprehensively evaluated,and the necessity of using Bootstrap method in the application of CBD model is demonstrated.Finally,the longevity risk of China's annuity insurance products is analyzed and corresponding recommendations are given.The method of research and application of CBD model can also be applied to other mortality models,which can provide reference for the study of population mortality,life expectancy and related fields in China. |
PDF Full Text Request