A Statistical Analysis Of The Relationship Between Economic Bubbles And Income Inequality

The economic bubble is a series of asset price inflation,that is,market price of the asset jumped up in a continuous process and was far exceeding the virtual value,which formed a false prosperity and contained too much "bubble" in the total economic volume.In contemporary asset market,the largest amount of listed assets business are concentrated in stocks and real estate.Therefore,asset price inflation is particularly manifested in stocks and real estate.Based on this,this paper analyzes the relationship between economic bubble and income inequality from two aspects of the real estate bubble and the stock market bubble.The relationship between real estate bubble and income inequality is studied from two levels.One is to estimate the simultaneous equation model of the national level time series data from 1987 to 2016,The analysis finds that the real estate bubble and income inequality interact with each other positively.and the other is to estimate the panel data model and the panel quantile regression of the provincial panel data from2005 to 2016,The analysis of the panel data model shows that the real estate bubble and income inequality show a U-shaped relationship in the country and the two regions of central and western regions,which indicates that the income inequality will inhibit the real estate bubble,if the income inequality is within a certain range,Beyond this range,thereal estate bubble will be promoted,while the real estate bubble and income inequality show a significant inverted U-shaped relationship in the eastern region.Most of the sub-sector real estate bubbles and income inequality show a U-shaped relationship,and some of the sub-sector real estate bubbles and income inequality have an inverted U-shaped relationship,which further confirmed by the panel quantile regression.The study of stock market bubble and income inequality is mainly based on the analysis of Granger causality test and impulse response test for time series data from 1990 to 2016.The results show that income inequality is the Granger cause of the stock market bubble,but the stock market bubble is not the Granger cause of the income inequality.Through the impulse response test and variance decomposition,it is found that the increase of income inequality will increase the stock market bubble,and the former contributes about 10% to the latter.