Research On The Effect Of Migration On The Development Of The Real Estate Industry

Population is the basis of economic activities.With the rise of city clusters in China,new changes are taking place in the trend of migration.At the background of the remodeling of migration situation,for the local governments and real estate developers,how to recognize and grasp the law of interaction between migration and real estate economy is of great significance for the adjustment and planning of the real estate investment strategy.In order to explore whether the development of real estate industry in various cities will be effected by the change of migration,and how is it effected,this paper selected the topic of this research.Firstly,on the basis of relevant theoretical research,preliminary exploratory analysis is conducted on the migration and real estate development data of 70 cities from 2011 to 2017,with the method of statistics and chart analysis.Then the overall panel data estimation model and the city differentiation estimation model are built,the differences of the effect of migration index on the development of real estate industry between the immigration cities and emigration cities are compared and analyzed.The research results show that:(1)The increase in the proportion of migrations in resident population and the net ratio of immigration have a significant promoting effect on the real estate industry;(2)Cities with a net annual immigration of more than 50 000 have a higher potential for real estate growth;(3)Varying types of cities have varying degrees of effect,immigration cities are more sensitive to the change of the proportion of migrations in resident population,and for every 1 percentage point increase(decrease)in the proportion of migrations in resident population,the real estate composite growth rate index of immigration cities will increase(decrease)by 0.4507 percentage points,while the emigration cities will increase(decrease)by 0.3735 percentage points;(4)Emigration cities are more sensitive to the change of the net ratio of immigration,for every 1 thousand point increase in the net ratio of immigration,the real estate composite growth rate index of immigration cities will increase by 0.0919 percentage points,while for every 1 thousand point decrease in the net ratio of immigration,the real estate composite growth rate index of emigration cities will decrease by 0.1751 percentage points.According to the research results,it is suggested that local governments and real estate developers should pay attention to the change of migration trend,encourage industrial shift and structural upgrading,guide the proper distribution of population,and alleviate the unbalanced development of real estate industry between regions;Information exchange platform should be built to solve the housing problem of migration;According to the change situation of migration,the real estate developers should scientifically make the investment strategy and seize the investment opportunities of cities with large population attraction.