| Objective:To explore the development status and laws of college students' physical fitness,and find out the root cause of the decline in physical fitness.Using time series analysis to study the development trend of college students' physical fitness indicators is conducive to giving scientific guidance to college students' physical education and finding solutions to curb the decline of college students' physical fitness.This is an active attempt in the field of physical fitness and health research to promote The development of physical quality of college students in China.Methods: In this study,the mean,standard error,analysis of variance,trend test,development level growth amount and growth rate were used to analyze 1000-meter(male)and 800-meter(female)male and female university students aged 19-22 at North University of China from 2007 to 2017.).Analyze the overall,long-term trends and gender differences of the average scores of the test items for forward sitting and standing long jump,and use the average test results of the 19-year-old boy from 2007 to 2012 to predict the rationality of the2013-2017 performance verification model,and then Predict the test results of college students aged 19-22 in 2022 and 2027.Results:(1)From the overall trend,the average test score of 1000 meters for 19-22 year old boys showed a downward trend over the past 11 years.The test scores for girls at 800 meters,sitting forward and standing long jump showed an overall increase,and the trend test was significant(P<0.05),the mean difference is significant(P <0.001).(2)From the perspective of long-term trends,from the period-by-period growth rate andthe chain growth rate,we can see that the average development trend of the test results of boys and girls aged 19-22 in 2007-2017 is similar;from the perspective of cumulative growth and fixed growth rate,girls The average 800-meter test score is 5 years out of 10 years,which is lower than the average test score in 2007,and the boys' 1000-meter test score is 8 years.The average flexion score of sitting position is 7 years higher than that of 2007 respectively,and the average result of standing long jump is 6 years.(3)From the perspective of gender differences,the average growth rate of each test item for girls is better than that for boys.(4)In the model verification,the average absolute errors of the observed and predicted values of the results of 1000 meters,forward flexion and standing long jump were 0.98,-0.09,0.01,and the relative errors were 0.006,-0.02,0.01,respectively.(5)As can be seen from the forecast table,the average predicted endurance scores in2022 and 2027 will increase except for 19-year-old boys,while the rest of the age group will see a decline in both boys and girls.The mean value of the forward flexion in sitting position is predicted to be the same as that of boys aged 19 and girls aged 22,the boys of 21 years remain unchanged,and the rest of the age groups will rise.The mean value of standing long jump is predicted to decrease except for 22-year-old boys in 2022,20-year-old and21-year-old girls in 2022 and 2027,and the rest of the age groups are in stagnation.Conclusion:(1)The average scores of 1000 meters and 800 meters are in a downward trend.The average value of the test results of sitting forward bending and standing long jump showed an overall upward trend.(2)The long-term trends of the test items all have large fluctuations in results and unstable results.(3)The development trend of the test results of boys and girls is similar.The average growth rate of girls' performance is larger than that of boys.The development in the past ten years is better than that of boys.(4)The time series analysis method predicts the scores of physical fitness indicators ofcollege students,and the error is small,which is consistent with the rules in statistics.The forecast data has certain guiding significance to reality,but to use the predicted value as reference data,it must be combined with the actual situation and taken Intervene with relevant measures. |
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