Research On The Impact Of COVID-19 On The Physical Fitness Development Trend Of College Student

Objective: To study the influence of COVID-19 epidemic on the development trend of college students’ physical health,the paper explores the changes and rules of college students’ physical health over the years with the method of physical education and statistics.Using time series analysis and geographic information system technology to students’ physical quality index forecast analysis,find out COVID-19 outbreak during the change of the physical health condition of students,according to the laws of the development trends and forecasts to targeted to help college students to strengthen their own physical health,but also for the government,the school management to provide new methods,new means students physical health.Research methods: The mean value,standard deviation and variance analysis were used to conduct a descriptive analysis of the average scores of standing long jump,50-meter running,sit-bending and 1,000-meter / 800-meter events of male and female college students from freshmen to seniors in Southwest University from 2013 to 2020,and then the overall and long-term development trend was analyzed by development increment and development speed.Time series was used to establish model prediction analysis for the average score of male students’ physical fitness tests from 2013 to 2019,and then compared with the predicted value and the actual value in 2020.Finally,GIS technology was used to draw the change chart of the failure rate of students’ physical fitness tests in each region of Southwest University from 2013 to 2020,to judge the impact of COVID-19 on physical fitness development.Results:(1)From the overall trend,in the past 8 years,the average scores of standing long jump,50 m race,sitting forward and 1000 m / 800 m of male and female students in Southwest University showed a downward trend.(2)From the long-term trend,it can be seen from the period by period growth and sequential growth rate that the decline rate of male standing long jump,male and female sitting forward and 1000 m / 800 m in Southwest University will increase in 2020;It can be seen from the cumulative growth and fixed base growth rate that the average scores of standing long jump and 1000 m / 800 m of boys and girls in 2020 show a significant trend of decline compared with 2013.(3)AR(1)model was established for standing long jump,50-meter race and forward buckling of sitting body by using time series analysis,and ARMA(1,1)model was established for 1000 meters.It can be seen from the prediction table that the predicted results in 2020 are 233.2643 cm,7.721413 s and 12.99659 cm respectively.257.0151 s.By comparing the actual value with the predicted value,the actual performance level of the standing long jump 50 meters race,the sitting forward bend,and 1000 meters decreased by 6.64%,0%,4.62%,and 3.33% respectively.(4)The failure rate of standing long jump,sitting forward bend and 1000 m / 800 m test results of students from all provinces of Southwest University gradually decreased from 2013 to 2019,and increased in 2020.The failure rate of 50-meter race from 2013 to 2020 gradually decreased slightly.(5)During COVID-19,the results of standing long jump,sitting forward bend and1000 m / 800 m events declined significantly,while the results of 50 m race did not change significantly.(6)Actual test scores of standing long jump,sitting forward bend and 1000 m /800 m during COVID-19 were all lower than predicted by the model.Research Conclusions:(1)From 2013 to 2020,the performance of male and female students in standing long jump,50 m running,sitting forward bending and 1000 m / 800 m in Southwest University generally showed a declining trend.The physical condition of college students was not optimistic and needed to be strengthened.(2)COVID-19 has a negative impact on the physical development of college students.Specifically,COVID-19 has aggravated the downward trend of standing long jump,sitting forward bending,and 1000 m / 800 m performance.During COVID-19,the failure rate of university students in standing long jump,sitting forward bending,and1000 m / 800 m events increased.(3)Through the combination of time series analysis and geographic information system technology,the physical fitness test scores of college students can be predicted and described,which conforms to the statistical law.This method is feasible and innovative.