| With the rapid development of the international transportation industry and the popularity of the Internet in the world,the international trade division has continued to deepen,the scope has continued to expand,the rapid development of intermediate goods trade,and the phenomenon that product production spans multiple national boundaries has become more and more common.The production of products in a country(region)is often completed by more and more countries.Each country is only responsible for one of the links,and then through the international trade to achieve the link between the various links,making the global value chain(GVC)become the world.The important characteristics of economic development,therefore,the added value of product production is distributed in all aspects of production,not just the countries where the final product is produced.The production of world products is moving towards the global value chain.The production of products in one country(region)will change more or less to all countries and regions involved in production.At the same time that economic exchanges between countries are becoming increasingly close,trade frictions between countries also occur frequently.For a long time,the United States is China's second largest trading partner after the EU.As the degree of economic interdependence between China and the United States continues to deepen,trade frictions continue to occur in the process.Especially this year,Sino-US trade friction has become one of the focuses of the world.From the perspective of trade value added,China's exports to the United States are measured.The largest of the top ten chapters of the commodity contains the manufacture of related products in the five major sub-sectors studied in this paper.Therefore,by studying the overall manufacturing industry and its manufacturing industries in the above-mentioned major sub-sectors,it is possible to more reasonably reflect the relationship between the overall and the part of the manufacturing industry,and also to reflect the differences in the relative heterogeneity between some industries.And this is also the background and research significance of this paper.Based on the above reasons,this paper is based on the KWW decomposition method(2010)and the WWZ decomposition method(2013)extended above.Based on the value-added trade accounting theory,the total exports of the manufacturing industry and its sub-sectors are decomposed according to the WWZ method.The decomposition results are based on the relationship between the definitions of the total exports in the KWW method and the WWZ decomposition method,and the forward participation and backward participation of the 44 major countries(or regions)in the world are given.Based on the measurement of the global value chain defined by Koopman,the corresponding GVC participation degree and location index are calculated,and the positions of each economy in the global value chain are analyzed according to the size of the countries(or regions).Importance.Furthermore,in order to explore how the changes in the participation of different economies in the global value chain of manufacturing and its sub-sectors will affect employment in their respective manufacturing sectors,this paper sets relevant models for in-depth analysis and quantification.This effect,due to the limitations of the socio-economic accounts in the WIOD database,although the global value chain indicators for 44 economies can be measured based on the ICIO(World Input-Output Table)provided by the OECD database,but others are in the regression equation.The data involved were not fully available in the WIOD database,so the data of 31 countries(or regions)was finally selected.In the analysis of the impact of GVC participation in employment in all 31 countries on employment,in order to further make the results more accurate and easy to conduct comparative analysis,the paper also gives the results of three other regressions.First,after decomposing the measure of GVC participation level into"forward participation IV/E and backward participation FV/E" the two GVC participation measure indicators in the original equation are replaced,and then regression is performed.Secondly,the above-mentioned countries are divided into two parts:high-income countries and middle-and above-income countries,of which middle-and high-income countries include China,India,Russia,Turkey,Bulgaria,and Brazil,and the rest are higher-income countries.Regression and comparison with the overall regression results.Finally,in order to facilitate the comparative analysis,this paper gives the regression results of the impact of the participation of all manufacturing GVC participation in the industry regardless of the industry.Finally,in order to further make the estimated results more accurate,based on the above regression results,this paper re-sets the model and deeomposes the global value chain participation in the original form into forward participation(IV/E)and Re-estimate the degree of participation(FV/E)and bring it into the equation.The regression results show that,on the one hand,through the analysis of the GVC position index and participation measurement,the following conclusions are drawn:Firstly,the participation of GVC in the middle and high income countries is generally high,but the position index is low(except Brazil).Higher income countries are the opposite.Secondly,the GVC position index of the middle and upper income countries has changed greatly from 2000 to 2014,and there are negative values,while the higher income countries are relatively stable and both are positive.On the other hand,through an empirical analysis of the impact on employment,the following conclusions are made:First of all,the overall manufacturing GVC position index and participation in middle and high income countries will promote and inhibit the employment respectively.In terms of industries,the development of different levels of technology is inconsistent with high-tech industries such as computers.In the electronics industry and the automotive industry with relatively high technical requirements,except for the position index items of the former computer type,which are not significant(but tend to have an inhibitory effect),the rest are consistent with the whole.Secondly,the overall manufacturing GVC location index in higher income countries has a positive effect on employment,while the impact of participation on employment is not significant(but tends to promote employment in contrast to the middle and high countries).Compared with the middle and upper countries,except for the position index of the automobile type,it has a significant effect on employment.Thirdly,by decomposing the participation degree and location index into forward participation degree IV/E and backward participation degree FV/E,further research found that the overall participation of the manufacturing industry in the different income countries is basically the same,the former It has an inhibitory effect on employment(but not significant),and the latter has a significant promotion effect.The impact of various sub-sectors on employment is significantly different.Among the high-income countries,except for computer-based manufacturing,the forward participation of other industries has a significant role in promoting employment.For middle-and high-income countries,in addition to automobiles.Except for significant effects and inhibition of employment,the rest did not have a significant impact.Similarly,for post-participation,the impact on employment in different countries is also significantly different.Finally,for the overall manufacturing industry in all countries,the GVC location index and participation have a significant effect on employment and have no significant impact,while in the context of participation,the forward participation has no effect on employment,and the backward participation has significant effect on employment inhibition. |
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