Impact Of Labor Force Supply Evolution On China's Manufacturing Industry Global Value Chain Position

The report of the 19 th national congress of the communist party of China has pointed out that,in order to build a modern economy system,we must focus on the real economy and promote Chinese industries to the middle and high end of the global value chain,further foster world-class advanced manufacturing industry.Since the Reform and Opening up,basing on the traditional low cost competitive advantage,China's manufacturing industry has quickly integrated into global value chain system which is dominated by western developed countries,and has seized the opportunities brought by the global spread of industry and technology to realize the manufacturing rapid development.China has become the largest manufacturing country in the world where the demographic dividend has played a crucial role in the expansion of manufacturing scale,which has also determined the low-end-embedding feature of China's manufacturing development.There are rationality and inevitability of this development mode in the specific stage.However,with the gradual disappearance of the demographic dividend,the comparative advantages supporting the traditional development path of manufacturing industry have become more and more unsustainable,making it become an objective fact that China's manufacturing industry is suffering the characteristic of bulky but not strong.Therefore,it is a major task facing by China that how to achieve the goal of moving the manufacturing industry to the middle and high end of the global value chain.This paper is divided into six parts.The background and significance of the paper are summarized firstly.Then the literature review is listed systematically arranging by global value chain rising,the evolution of labor force supply,and the relationship between them.Then the theoretical models focusing on the functional mechanism between labor force evolution and value chain upgrading are developed.The measure indicators and regression model are designed later.Further the empirical analysis is taken to study the impact of labor force supply evolution on the global value chain position of China's manufacturing industry.Finally,the conclusion is summarized and some advice and inspirations are put forwards.The main conclusions of the study are as follows: labor force supply is the important engine for the manufacturing industry development,which at least plays two aspects of role in the global value chain position climb.Firstly,the effect of demographic dividend is to achieve economies of scale,strengthen comparative advantages of neighbor processes,realize optimal production,and advance valuechain upgrading,while the prerequisite is the existing labor surplus after optimal production.With the global value chain rising,the effect of labor force quantity continues to decrease.Secondly,the labour force quality,that is to say the talent bonus,is the substitution and supplement of the labor force quantity.As opposed to the labour force quantity,the effect of the talent bonus continue to promote as the global value chain position rising,and the restricting of labor force skills is becoming more prominent.