| In this study,the literature data method and mathematical statistics method are used to analyze the factors that affect the results of the Chinese Super League.Using 10 seasons of the 2009-2018 season,the data of 2400 games of 27 teams constitute panel data.Explore the impact of "technical and tactical indicators","fouling indicators" and "home and away" on the results of the game in 10 seasons.The interpreted variables of this study: "contest results" are divided into: "win","draw" and "negative".The explanatory variables are divided into three categories: "technical and tactical indicators" : shooting,shooting accuracy,steals,steal success rate,corner kicks,free kicks and penalty kicks;"foul indicators" : offside,yellow cards,Red cards;"Situation variables" : home and away,opponent strength.By using the nested randome-effects ordered logistic model,the marginal effect is compared with the upstream and downstream team models to obtain the research results,and provides data support for the training and competition of the Chinese Super League team.The research concluded that:First,technical and tactical indicators: shooting and shooting rate have a significant positive impact on the outcome of the game,the positive impact of shooting rate on the outcome of the game is higher than shooting.Both the success rate of tackle and the success rate of tackle have a significant positive effect on the result of the match.The success rate of tackle has a slightly more positive effect on the result of the match than the success rate of tackle.The high success rate of penalty kick ensures its significant positive influence on the result of the match.The main reasons for the negative impact on the result of the game are the forced interruption of the attack,the low attacking efficiency of the corner kick and the free kick in the front field,and the opportunity for the defender to attack quickly.In the upper and lower teams,shooting,target rate,tackle,tackle success rate and penalty kick all have significant positive effects on the result of the match.In corners and free-kicks,there are forced breaks in attack,inefficiency and the possibility of a quick counter-attack by the defender,which negatively affects the result of the game.Second,foul indicators: red cards undoubtedly have a significant negative impact on the result of the game,while yellow cards and offside have a significant positive impact on the result of the game,that is to say,effective foul to a certain extent to delay and destroy the opponent's attack and reorganize the defense is one of the ways to win the game in the Chinese Super League team;Offside represents the attacking ability of the team to some extent.Increasing the number of attacking to the opposing half is an important indicator of winning in CSL.In both upstream and downstream teams,red cards have significant negative effects on the game results,but yellow cards and offside have significant positive effects on downstream teams,but not on upstream teams.It is very important for the downstream team to delay or hinder the opponent's attack and reorganize the defense by fouling.It is also very important for the downstream team to increase the number of attacks to the opponent's half,but not so important for the upstream team.Third,game situation: both the game place and the opponent's strength have significant influence on the result of the game.Compared with away games,the home team has a higher probability of winning.The stronger the opponent,the lower the team's probability of winning,and vice versa,the higher the probability of winning.In the upper and lower teams,the performance is as follows: compared with away games,the winning probability of the home team is higher;If the opponent is strong,the probability of winning is lower;if not,the probability of winning is higher.Research recommendations:First,technical and tactical indicators: improve the shooting times,and at the same time,more important is to improve the accuracy of shooting.In the training process,strengthen the players' shooting desire and self-confidence,improve the shooting times,try to have the goalkeeper and defense personnel training,improve the shooting quality of players.Compared with tackle,it is more important to improve players' tackle efficiency.Attach importance to tackle training in the training process,encourage players to tackle in the game,and pay attention to improve the quality of tackle.In the penalty kick,corner kick and the forward free-kick three kinds of set-pieces,in the game to create more of their own free kick opportunities.Reference before the game before the game analysis of the characteristics of the goalkeeper and the other important relevant data of the player's penalty,in the process of training to do some targeted training on penalties to ensure that penalty penalty points won,and to minimize the opponent's free throws,penalty rate reduce take penalty penalty opportunities,is the defensive player of the defensive action to be more careful in the penalty area.Improve the scoring efficiency of corner kick and free kick in set piece,strengthen the training of corner kick and free kick in the training process,and cultivate the team's master of set kick,cultivate the team's understanding of dealing with free kick and corner kick;In the competition,the consistency of offense should be ensured as far as possible,and the interruption of offense should be avoided to give the opponent a chance to reorganize the defense.Strengthen the practice of fighting for the two penalties and pay attention to the key players on the defensive side to avoid giving opponents a chance to attack quickly.In the upper and lower sides of the team,both in the technical and tactical aspects of the proposal consistent.Second,the rule index: decisive destruction of the opponent attack.Players are encouraged to use reasonable technical fouls outside the penalty area at critical moments in the game to disrupt potential scoring opportunities for opponents.In addition,unnecessary fouls should be reduced.In CSL,teams should pay more attention to emotional management education of players with a yellow cards,and coaches should also pay attention to the replacement of players with a yellow cards.Increase the number of times to enter the other half,improve the efficiency of attack.In the game,players should be encouraged to attack more to the other half of the court.At the same time,they should not blindly pursue the number of attacks.While increasing the number of attacks,they should constantly improve the level of understanding between players,reduce the attack failure caused by offside,and improve the attack efficiency.In terms of upstream and downstream teams,both sides need to avoid the occurrence of red cards.The difference is that the downstream teams should resolutely carry out effective tactical fouls to delay and hinder the opponent's attack and increase the number of times they enter the opposing half.Thirdly,as an important factor that cannot be ignored in the result of a team match,the coach should arrange the team to simulate the situation of home and away matches and conduct training matches.At the same time,when the team is playing as a visiting team,it should also improve the attack reasonably,so as to avoid the loss caused by too conservative.Before the competition,we estimate the opponent's strength according to his ranking,and make corresponding tactics according to the opponent's strength,so as to maximize the situation of winning because of the opponent's weakness.To reduce the loss of a game due to a strong opponent.In the upstream and downstream teams,both need to pay attention to the strength of the home and away opponents. |
PDF Full Text Request