The Impact Of Brexit Related Events On Euro/British Pound Exchange Rate

On June 23 th,2016,the British decided to leave European Union after referendum,which has a significant impact on global financial markets.This thesis focuses on the impact caused by brexit related events on Euro/British Pound exchange rate after 2017.Qualitative analysis divides the price sequence into four stages,and uses breakpoint test to examine it.To check the lag effect of brexit related events,the study also builds a distributed lag model.Results show that brexit related events contribute to structural change in the price model and the length of lag may be a week.At last,we try to predict Euro/British Pound exchange rate with support vector machine.