Triple-System Estimator Based On Household Registration System And Its Application

The population issue has always been widely concerned by all countries.It is related to the planning and formulation of national economic policies and social development.In 2020,China is about to usher in the Seventh National Population Census,which is a very huge national project.The obtained population data can reflect the changes in population structure and the development of regional economy during the rapid development of China in this decade.Various social contradictions and the rationality of related policy making.The premise of the rational use of population data is to ensure the authenticity and accuracy of the data information.Therefore,the government departments of various countries conduct quality assessment on the results of the census data.Internationally,the most mainstream quality assessment method is the Post-Investigation,and its core idea is the Dual-System Estimator based on the Capture Recapture Model.But in the applied research of census evaluation,there are still strict assumptions that don't meet the actual situation,resulting in the generation of interaction bias.As a result,the estimation of the actual population caused serious defects of systematic bias.Due to the good estimation properties of the Triple-System Estimator and its ability to better deal with the statistical dependencies between the systems,the defect of the interaction bias of the Dual-System Estimation can be better solved.As a special administrative record data in China,the Household Registration System data originates from public security agencies.The data acquisition cost is low and the response rate is high,which makes the data more reliable and accurate than other administrative record data.The actual correlation is smaller,and it can well avoid the interaction bias with the census and quality assessment survey system due to mutual independence.Given this,this paper refers to the theoretical principle of the Multiple Recapture Model and combines the data of the Household Registration System to evaluate the quality of the census data.So,as to improve the Dual-System Estimator and establish aTriple-System Population Movement Estimates based on the Household Registration System with Chinese characteristics,applicable to the actual situation in the census year,and population movement factors.Then,based on the balance of the Census Registration results,the Net error estimates,Omissions and Overcoverage rates of the Census,and their sampling variance estimates are gradually derived,so that the Census Coverage Error Evaluation and Household Registration under the Triple-System Estimator theory framework,respectively.The System Coverage Error Evaluation has been continuously improved.Finally,field surveys were carried out on some streets in Nan'an District of Chongqing City to obtain population census,quality assessment survey data and household registration system data,and the obtained micro-data was comprehensively applied to the theory of Triple-System Estimator to verify the feasibility of its model analysis.The data results show that the Net Error Rate of the Triple-System Estimator is low,and the estimated variance of the sampling is small,indicating that the overall registration is good,and the data information is fully utilized and feasibility,which can better improve the estimation accuracy of the estimator.But the under-reporting of the population registration situation is serious,showing that the population outflow rate in the region is large and the economic development is slow.However,on the other hand,the Census(Household Registration Management)cannot be judged solely by the value of the Net Error Rate to quality the work registration is good or bad.We also need to combine the Omissions and Overcoverage estimator to comprehensively evaluate the merits of the quality assessment results of the Census(Household Registration Management).For this reason,this article combines the empirical work process and the loopholes in the data results,and puts forward corresponding recommendations for the Census Quality Assessment and Household Registration Management,with a view to providing reference information and feasibility comments for the Chinese Seventh National Census in 2020.