The Fuzzy Real Option Theory In The Application Of Patent Value Evaluation Research

Access to the information and knowledge economy era, patent has become theoffensive and defensive weapon in the market, and it will be a more and more importantrole in market for corporate. The uncertainty of the patent investment costs and benefits,the soar about the patent technology uncertainty and so on maybe result in the high degreeof uncertainty about the costs, expected return and the duration of patent term. And theoriginal patent valuation methods have been difficult to assess the value of patent. Becauseof the high uncertainty and fuzzy of intangible assets, such traditional assessing ways asthe Incoming method, the Net Present Value, the Real Option and so on is not suitable toevaluate patent, especially when the patent investment process is dynamic. So, this paperwill study the problem of the patent valuation methods. And it includes the followingcontents:Firstly, the concept of the value of patent. Cumulative process of the invention andthe complexity of the product make the segmentation degree of right increasing, and theownership of the product patent technology maybe multiple patent become divided. Theseprompted a more complex product patent technology commercialization, and alsoexacerbated the complexity among patents. The patent plays an essential role when we putit into improving the competitive advantage of enterprise, defending potential intruders,strengthening the enterprise resource to be the capacity and promoting the enterprise'sfuture innovation and so on. This is primarily because the enterprise may use patent tocarry out "creative destruction" commercial activities, breaks the original barriers, andforms a new standard business model. And then this paper explores the patent technicalvalue, the patent economic value and the patent strategic value basing on the theory ofeconomic rent and builds the patent value model based on the perspective of economicrent.Secondly, the duration of patent right. The variation of the patent field (e.g. patentdevelopment status, technical level, technical maturity, similar patent technology familyscale, competition situation and patent technology updating speed, etc.), patentcommercialization (e.g. scope of application, market demand, market prospect, theindustry policy, competition situation and the substitute products and so on) and theoperation mode of the enterprise patents (e.g. patent production, transfer, franchises andthe technology alliance, ect.) led to a fuzzy number of the term of patent in the process ofcommercialization. So this paper is basing on the relative numbers of the Intellectual Property Office, using the statistical positive skewness theory and the fuzzy theory,studying the term of patent. And then it will explore the evaluation methods of the cost ofpatent and the return of patent again.Finally, the combination with the above conclusion, this paper will construct thepatent real option of statistical skewness distribution fuzzy numbers which is the key partof this study. Based on the existing literature, it will combine the interval number theory,the fuzzy set theory and the real option with the features of patent, projecting it andproving its reasonable.